FNA Observatory: Annual Economic Review 2026

Economic data review — snapshot collected 2026-11-03 01:33:14 UTC

A year of shifting growth rates, persistent joblessness in key economies, and notable disinflation, as annual data illuminate nuanced outcomes across selected African countries.

Economic data for the coming year across South Africa, Nigeria, Kenya, Egypt, Ethiopia, and Ghana paint a complex picture of the region’s largest and most closely watched economies. While some countries recorded shifts in growth rates and others experienced sharp changes in consumer price inflation, the data reveal the diversity of economic dynamics on the continent. This review examines annual changes in real GDP growth, inflation, unemployment measured by the International Labour Organization (ILO) modelled estimates, nominal GDP per capita in US dollars, and foreign direct investment as a share of economic activity. Readers should note that disinflation signifies a slowing in the pace of price increases rather than outright declines, nominal per capita GDP figures in US dollars are shaped by currency exchange rates and do not represent household living standards, and ILO unemployment figures do not always match national survey estimates.

At a glance — growth and inflation

Latest reported annual rates for the selected economies. Each cell displays its reference year; these are not monthly figures.

Growth Uneven as Ethiopia and Egypt Outpace Others

Among the countries reviewed, Ethiopia recorded notably strong real GDP growth in the coming year, with a level of 9.77% (2025) according to the World Bank’s data. This continues a trend of robust expansion, with Ethiopia’s growth rate surpassing its recent three-year average. Egypt also saw a significant boost, registering real GDP growth of 4.39% (2025), an increase on the previous year. In contrast, South Africa’s economy grew more modestly at 1.11% (2025)—a figure that, while higher than its recent mean, remains subdued in historical context. Kenya and Ghana reported mid-range annual growth of 4.63% (2025) and 5.95% (2025), respectively, while Nigeria’s output grew at 4.01% (2025), fairly consistent with its mean over the past three years. Fluctuations in growth across these economies underline distinct national factors shaping the pace of expansion.

Sharp Disinflation but Price Increases Persist

Consumer price inflation slowed markedly in several economies, indicating disinflation—slower increases in the general price level, not declining prices. Egypt’s inflation rate fell to 14.07% (2025), a sharp drop from the previous year. Nigeria also saw a significant deceleration in inflation, reaching 23.01% (2025), while Ethiopia experienced lower but still double-digit inflation at 13.23% (2025). Ghana and Kenya recorded more moderate inflation at 14.20% (2025) and 4.07% (2025), respectively, while South Africa saw prices rise at a slower pace with an inflation rate of 3.21% (2025). In every case, prices continued to increase over the year, though in most instances the pace slowed significantly.

Unemployment: Persistently High in South Africa, Lower Elsewhere

ILO modelled estimates for unemployment reveal stark contrasts among the countries under review. South Africa continued to experience very high unemployment, with the rate standing at 32.39% (2025). In contrast, Nigeria and Ethiopia reported much lower ILO-style jobless rates at 3.06% (2025) and 3.32% (2025) respectively, though these figures are based on international standard definitions and may differ from national survey outcomes. Kenya, Egypt, and Ghana reported mid-to-lower ranges, with Kenya at 5.45% (2025), Egypt at 6.78% (2025), and Ghana at 2.98% (2025). Although these modelled rates offer an annual benchmark, caution is warranted in comparing them directly to domestically reported data. 32.39% (2025)

Exchange Rates and Fluctuating Nominal GDP Per Capita

The annual nominal GDP per capita in US dollars—a measure shaped by both economic output and currency movements—varied considerably. Ghana reported an increase to US$3,257 (2025), well above its recent average. South Africa’s nominal GDP per capita also rose, reaching US$6,598 (2025). Kenya and Nigeria saw figures climb to US$2,363 (2025) and US$1,224 (2025), respectively. In contrast, Egypt and Ethiopia reported lower nominal GDP per capita levels for the coming year, with Egypt at US$3,086 (2025) and Ethiopia at US$933 (2025). These US dollar-denominated figures reflect both domestic economic activity and shifting exchange rates, and should not be interpreted as representing changes in household living standards or purchasing power.

Foreign Direct Investment Shifts Alongside Economic Trends

Foreign direct investment net inflows as a share of GDP diverged widely among these six economies. Egypt recorded a level of 4.23% (2025), following higher previous inflows. Ethiopia and Ghana received foreign direct investment inflows of 3.00% (2025) and 1.67% (2025), while Kenya and Nigeria recorded moderate inflows at 0.82% (2025) and 1.38% (2025). Meanwhile, South Africa posted negative foreign direct investment net inflows for the year at -0.51% (2025), indicating that outflows exceeded inflows relative to the size of its economy. These measures reflect changes in investor confidence and differing economic circumstances, though they can be influenced by one-off transactions and exchange rate dynamics.

Interpretation

Annual economic data for the coming year highlight notable differences in growth rates, inflation, and investment across some of Africa’s largest economies. Each country’s figures reflect unique policy settings, sectoral dynamics, and international influences, while underlining the need to interpret high-level statistics within their methodological and contextual limitations.

Detailed statistical appendix — verified observations

The following figures are taken from the stored World Bank snapshot. Each observation has its own reference year. A change is shown only when the preceding calendar year is available.

Sources and methodology

Source: World Bank, World Development Indicators (WDI), accessed 2026-11-03 01:33:14 UTC. The selected economies are not a representative sample of Africa. Values are annual; latest available years vary by series and country. Unemployment uses the ILO-modelled estimate. Year-on-year movements for rates are stated in percentage points; GDP per capita changes are percentages when a positive comparison base exists. Three-year means require three consecutive observations. These observations may be revised after retrieval. The narrative is AI-assisted; numerical evidence statements and charts are generated from stored observations, but editorial interpretations still require review. Nominal US-dollar GDP per capita does not measure household income or real purchasing power. A lower positive inflation rate does not mean prices fell.