The political, social, and humanitarian situation in Syria remains one of the most complex and protracted crises of the 21st century. Over a decade of civil war has decimated the country, reshaped regional dynamics, and left millions of Syrians in desperate need of humanitarian assistance. While the active combat of earlier years has diminished in intensity, the underlying causes of the conflict remain unresolved. This commentary examines the multifaceted dimensions of the Syrian crisis, including the enduring humanitarian disaster, the geopolitical chessboard, and the prospects for peace and stability.
The State of Humanitarian Crisis
More than 13 years since the start of the conflict in 2011, the humanitarian crisis in Syria shows no signs of abating. According to the United Nations, over 6.8 million people remain internally displaced, and an additional 5.5 million have fled the country as refugees. These numbers represent one of the largest displacement crises in modern history.
Inside Syria, basic infrastructure has been obliterated. Hospitals, schools, and water systems have been systematically destroyed, leaving entire communities without access to essential services. The country’s economy is in free fall, with hyperinflation making everyday necessities unaffordable. The COVID-19 pandemic exacerbated these challenges, straining an already fragile health system.
Compounding the crisis is the rise in food insecurity. The World Food Programme reports that over 12 million Syrians—more than half the population—are food insecure. With international aid flows disrupted by geopolitical wrangling, millions face the stark reality of hunger, malnutrition, and disease.
Geopolitical Entanglements
The Syrian conflict’s longevity and intensity stem in part from its role as a proxy battlefield for competing regional and global powers. What began as a domestic uprising against the authoritarian regime of Bashar al-Assad quickly evolved into a multidimensional war involving state and non-state actors.
Regional Players
Iran and Russia have emerged as the Syrian regime’s most steadfast allies. Tehran’s support stems from its strategic interest in maintaining a corridor of influence stretching from Iran to Lebanon via Iraq and Syria. This so-called “Shia Crescent” provides Iran with a geopolitical buffer and a direct line to Hezbollah, its Lebanese proxy. Russia, meanwhile, views Syria as a cornerstone of its Middle Eastern strategy. The Russian military intervention in 2015 not only saved Assad from potential collapse but also cemented Moscow’s foothold in the region, including its naval base in Tartus and airbase in Khmeimim.
Turkey has pursued its own agenda, focusing primarily on curbing Kurdish autonomy near its southern border. Ankara’s interventions have targeted the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), which it views as an extension of the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK), a designated terrorist group. Turkey’s incursions have also fueled tensions with the United States, which supports the SDF in the fight against ISIS.
Global Powers
The United States and its Western allies initially supported opposition groups seeking to overthrow Assad but later shifted focus to combating ISIS. While the defeat of ISIS’s territorial caliphate in 2019 was a significant milestone, the U.S. continues to maintain a limited military presence in northeastern Syria, ostensibly to prevent an ISIS resurgence and to protect local Kurdish allies. However, Washington’s strategic objectives in Syria remain ambiguous, reflecting a broader reluctance to become deeply entangled in the conflict.
China, while less directly involved, has expressed support for the Assad regime in international forums, aligning with Russia to block punitive measures against Damascus at the United Nations Security Council. Beijing’s interest in Syria appears tied to its broader Belt and Road Initiative and efforts to expand influence in the Middle East.
The Question of Assad’s Legitimacy
Bashar al-Assad has managed to cling to power, but his regime’s legitimacy is deeply contested both domestically and internationally. Once seen as teetering on the brink of collapse, Assad has gradually consolidated control over large swathes of territory, primarily through brute force and the backing of his allies.
However, Assad’s survival has come at an enormous cost. His government stands accused of widespread human rights abuses, including the use of chemical weapons, mass detentions, and indiscriminate bombings of civilian areas. These actions have eroded any remaining credibility the regime might claim and have made Syria a pariah state in the eyes of much of the international community.
Efforts to rehabilitate Assad’s regime are ongoing in some quarters. A number of Arab states, including the United Arab Emirates and Jordan, have reopened diplomatic channels with Damascus, driven by a combination of realpolitik and hopes of stabilizing the region. Yet such overtures are unlikely to translate into significant change on the ground unless accompanied by meaningful political reforms—something Assad has shown little inclination to pursue.
Assad’s Overthrow and Escape
In a dramatic turn of events, President Bashar al-Assad was overthrown in a coup orchestrated by dissenting factions within his own government and military. The coup was reportedly driven by widespread discontent over Assad’s inability to address the deteriorating economic and security situation in the country. Facing imminent capture, Assad fled Syria and sought asylum in Russia, where he remains under the protection of Moscow.
The overthrow has left Syria in a state of political flux. A transitional government composed of opposition leaders, defected regime officials, and representatives from various ethnic and religious groups has taken the reins of power. While this coalition has pledged to work toward democratic reforms, it faces significant challenges, including internal divisions, ongoing security threats from extremist groups, and the daunting task of rebuilding a shattered nation.
The Role of Extremist Groups
Although ISIS no longer controls significant territory, extremist groups continue to pose a threat in Syria. The remnants of ISIS have shifted tactics, reverting to guerrilla warfare and carrying out sporadic attacks. In addition, other jihadist factions, including Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), remain active, particularly in Idlib province.
Idlib—the last major stronghold of opposition forces—is a powder keg. Governed by HTS, the province is home to over 3 million people, many of whom are displaced civilians. Any large-scale offensive by government forces to reclaim the region would likely result in catastrophic humanitarian consequences. The fragile ceasefire brokered by Turkey and Russia in 2020 has largely held, but tensions remain high.
The Economic Collapse
Syria’s economic woes are both a symptom and a driver of its broader instability. Years of war, corruption, and sanctions have left the economy in shambles. The Syrian pound has lost more than 90% of its value since the conflict began, plunging millions into poverty. Meanwhile, the illicit economy—including drug production and smuggling—has flourished, with captagon (an amphetamine) becoming a significant export.
Sanctions imposed by the United States and European Union, while aimed at pressuring Assad, have also had unintended consequences. Critics argue that these measures disproportionately harm ordinary Syrians, limiting access to food, medicine, and other essential goods. The challenge lies in balancing the need to hold the regime accountable with the imperative to alleviate human suffering.
Prospects for Peace
Achieving a lasting resolution to the Syrian conflict remains an elusive goal. The UN-led Geneva peace process has stalled, with little progress on drafting a new constitution or paving the way for elections. Key sticking points include the transitional government’s need to consolidate power and the fragmented nature of the opposition.
Regional initiatives, such as Russia’s Astana talks involving Turkey and Iran, have similarly failed to deliver substantive outcomes. The competing interests of these actors often undermine collective efforts to stabilize the country. Without a unified approach, the prospects for meaningful political change remain dim.
The Way Forward
Addressing the Syrian crisis requires a multifaceted approach that prioritizes humanitarian relief, conflict resolution, and long-term reconstruction. The international community must:
- Enhance Humanitarian Assistance: Immediate action is needed to scale up aid delivery, particularly in hard-to-reach areas. Mechanisms such as cross-border aid must be preserved and expanded to ensure that life-saving supplies reach those in need.
- Reassess Sanctions: While holding the Assad regime accountable is important, sanctions should be calibrated to minimize their impact on ordinary Syrians. Targeted measures focusing on regime insiders and economic incentives for compliance with international norms could strike a better balance.
- Support Inclusive Governance: Any political solution must include input from a diverse array of Syrian voices, including civil society groups, women, and minorities. International actors should invest in grassroots efforts to rebuild trust and foster reconciliation.
- Combat Extremism: Counterterrorism efforts must address not only the symptoms but also the root causes of extremism, such as poverty, lack of education, and political disenfranchisement. A sustainable strategy requires collaboration between local, regional, and global stakeholders.
- Encourage Regional Cooperation: Syria’s neighbors have a vested interest in its stability. Greater collaboration between regional powers, coupled with international mediation, could help de-escalate tensions and pave the way for broader agreements.
- Invest in Reconstruction: Rebuilding Syria’s devastated infrastructure is essential for long-term stability. However, reconstruction funding should be conditional on genuine political reforms to prevent resources from entrenching the status quo.
Conclusion
The Syrian conflict is a tragic testament to the consequences of unbridled authoritarianism, foreign interference, and international paralysis. While the challenges are daunting, they are not insurmountable. By prioritizing humanitarian relief, fostering inclusive dialogue, and addressing the root causes of instability, the international community can help lay the groundwork for a brighter future for Syria and its people. The path to peace may be long and fraught with obstacles, but it is a journey that must be undertaken.