In a recent interview, John Joseph Mearsheimer, a renowned American political scientist and international relations scholar, provided a deep dive into the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, the dynamics of power politics, and the role of the Israel lobby in shaping U.S. policy. Known for his realist perspective, Mearsheimer offers a critical and thought-provoking analysis of the situation, highlighting the complexities and moral dilemmas involved.

The Realist Framework
Definition and Core Principles

Mearsheimer begins by explaining the core tenets of realism, a theory of international politics that prioritizes power as the central currency of international relations. According to Mearsheimer, realism posits that states are primarily concerned with the balance of power, striving to maximize their power to ensure survival in an anarchic international system where no higher authority exists to protect them.

“Realism is a theory of international politics that privileges power. It says power is the currency of international relations, and states are mainly concerned, not exclusively, but mainly concerned about the balance of power,” Mearsheimer explains.

In such a world, he argues, it is rational for states to seek to become hegemons, ensuring they are more powerful than their rivals. This relentless competition for power often leads to security dilemmas and, in some cases, war.

Realism and the Israeli-Palestinian Conflict

Mearsheimer clarifies that the Israeli-Palestinian conflict does not fit neatly into the realist framework because it is not a competition between two sovereign states but rather a conflict involving one state, Israel, and a non-state actor, the Palestinians in Gaza.

“The reason it doesn’t apply to the Israeli-Palestinian case is we’re not talking about rival states. We’re talking about one state, which is Greater Israel, and we’re talking about the fact that inside of Greater Israel, the Palestinians in Gaza are revolting against the Israelis,” Mearsheimer states.

He likens the situation in Gaza to a “prison break,” where the Palestinians, who he describes as being “locked…in a giant open-air prison,” revolted against their conditions.

Israel’s Strategy and Objectives
The Assault on Gaza

Discussing Israel’s assault on Gaza, Mearsheimer asserts that the stated goal of defeating Hamas is virtually impossible through military means. He suggests that Israel’s real objective was to ethnically cleanse Gaza, driving the Palestinians out to create a state predominantly for Israeli Jews.

“Their ultimate goal, I believe, from the beginning was to ethically cleanse Gaza, to drive the Palestinians out of Gaza… I think that was a rational strategy even though I wanna make it clear, I think it was an abhorrent strategy from a moral point of view,” Mearsheimer argues.

He contends that while this strategy might seem rational from a power-politics perspective, it is morally reprehensible and has failed to achieve its aims.

Long-Term Sustainability of an Apartheid State

Mearsheimer is skeptical about the long-term viability of Israel as an apartheid state. He warns that Israel’s actions, including what he describes as genocidal behavior towards the Palestinians, will tarnish its reputation and could lead to its isolation.

“The Israelis tend to think they can get away with it now because western elites are backing them pretty much to the hilt. But…it will, I believe, be disastrous for Israel’s reputation,” he says.

He draws parallels with South Africa, suggesting that Israel, like apartheid South Africa, might face severe consequences for maintaining such a system.

The Role of the Israel Lobby
Influence on U.S. Policy

Mearsheimer and his colleague Stephen Walt have previously argued that the Israel lobby plays a significant role in shaping U.S. policy towards Israel. In the interview, Mearsheimer reiterates this point, highlighting the lobby’s continued influence.

“There’s no question that the Israel lobby is playing a key role in keeping the West on Israel’s side… The lobby has to work overtime to defend Israel,” Mearsheimer notes.

He observes that while their work has influenced public discourse about Israel, it has had little effect on actual policy, underscoring the lobby’s power.

Public Perception and Social Media

Mearsheimer highlights the impact of social media on public perception of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. He notes that platforms like TikTok have allowed more people, especially the younger generation, to see the realities of the conflict, which has led to increased sympathy for the Palestinians and criticism of Israel.

“With social media now, there’s just all sorts of videos on the Internet of what the Israelis are doing in Gaza… This is one of the principal reasons that the lobby is committed to shutting down TikTok,” he explains.

He argues that the visibility of the conflict on social media poses a significant challenge to the Israel lobby’s efforts to control the narrative.

The Future of Israel and Its International Standing
Moral and Strategic Challenges

Mearsheimer is pessimistic about Israel’s future if it continues on its current path. He believes that Israel’s actions in Gaza and its status as an apartheid state will lead to increasing international condemnation and isolation.

“Israel’s future does not look promising… So you marry the genocidal behavior with the fact that it’s an apartheid state, and Israel’s future does not look promising,” he asserts.

He suggests that while Israel currently enjoys support from powerful states like the United States, this support may not be sustainable in the long term, especially as global awareness and condemnation grow.

The Role of the United States

The U.S. plays a crucial role in Israel’s strategy, providing substantial political, military, and economic support. Mearsheimer questions the strategic and moral justification for this support, arguing that it is driven more by the influence of the Israel lobby than by genuine strategic interests.

“Strategically, Israel’s basically an albatross around America’s neck. And the argument that it’s ethically correct to support Israel against the Palestinians has been wrong for a long, long time,” he states.

He suggests that as more people become aware of the lobby’s influence and the realities of the conflict, there could be growing pressure on U.S. policymakers to reevaluate this relationship.

Conclusion

John Mearsheimer’s analysis of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict offers a sobering perspective on the dynamics of power, morality, and international politics. His realist framework provides a lens through which to understand the strategic calculations of states, while his critique of Israel’s policies highlights the moral complexities and long-term consequences of the conflict.

Mearsheimer’s insights into the role of the Israel lobby and the impact of social media underscore the changing landscape of international politics, where information and public perception play increasingly significant roles. As the conflict continues, Mearsheimer’s warnings about the sustainability of an apartheid state and the moral stain on Israel’s reputation serve as important considerations for policymakers and the global community.

In a world where power politics often overshadow moral imperatives, Mearsheimer’s call for a more ethical and strategic approach to international relations is both timely and necessary. His interview serves as a reminder that while states may act rationally in pursuit of power, they must also consider the long-term implications of their actions on both their own future and the broader international system.

By Wilson B. James

South African Political Analyst & Author