Israel’s current official line is maximalist across all fronts: Hezbollah must be disarmed; Gaza must be demilitarised and Hamas disarmed; Israel intends to preserve deep security belts on multiple borders; and Prime Minister Netanyahu has said the Iran war cannot be considered over until Iran’s enriched uranium is removed, proxy support ends, and ballistic-missile capabilities are eliminated. Iran’s current official line is equally hard: the war must end on all fronts, guarantees against renewed attacks must be credible, sanctions and blockades must be lifted, Iran’s enriched uranium should remain in-country, and any renewed attack will trigger broader retaliation. Those positions are not close enough to support a durable peace; they support only coercive bargaining under threat of renewed violence. [2]

The most likely path over the next one to six months is neither comprehensive settlement nor immediate all-out regional war, but an extended period of violent bargaining: rolling ceasefires, selective assassinations, militia attacks, airstrikes, maritime coercion around Hormuz, and periodic crises in Lebanon and Gaza. The best case is a narrow diplomatic stabilisation built around an interim U.S./Iran arrangement, a continued Lebanon truce, and modest improvements in Gaza aid access. The worst case is a second, broader round of direct war involving renewed Israeli and possibly U.S. strikes on Iran, Iranian missile salvos, full Hezbollah re-entry, Iraqi militia attacks on Gulf energy sites and Western bases, and renewed Houthi-style mass disruption in the Red Sea. These scenario judgements are analytic inferences drawn from present red lines, ceasefire fragility, and observed proxy activity. [3]

For Africa, the largest near-term risks are not military contagion in the Levant itself but second-order shocks through shipping, fuel, inflation, remittances, and diplomacy. Egypt is the most exposed large African state because it combines Gaza adjacency, Suez dependence, energy import pressures, and Gulf-linked remittance exposure. Among sub-Saharan importers, Kenya, Tanzania, Ghana, Malawi, Mauritania, and others have already seen visible fuel-price shocks; Morocco has already registered transport-cost inflation from the conflict; Somalia is highly exposed through remittance dependence and Red Sea migration/security channels; and African troop contributors to UNIFIL, though limited in number, face real force-protection risk if Lebanon relapses into war. [4]

Current strategic picture

The current regional picture is best understood as a multi-front coercive equilibrium. Israel is trying to convert battlefield gains in Gaza, southern Lebanon, and the Syrian borderlands into enduring security depth; Iran is trying to convert survival, residual missile leverage, Hormuz disruption, and proxy deterrence into a settlement that preserves regime security and at least some nuclear and regional bargaining assets. Between them sit fragile Arab mediators, damaged proxy networks, and states such as Lebanon, Iraq, and Syria whose sovereignty is increasingly shaped by war spillover rather than by stable internal control. [5]

A key change since 2023 is that the old “shadow war” frame is no longer adequate. The conflict has evolved from proxy harassment and covert operations into repeated direct exchange: Iran’s direct missile-drone attack on Israel in April 2024; Israel’s retaliatory strike on Iranian soil days later; Israel’s June 2025 campaign against Iranian nuclear and military targets; and the much larger U.S.–Israeli war with Iran beginning on 28 February 2026. The present question is therefore not whether Iran and Israel can fall into direct war, but whether the present pause becomes a restrained deterrent balance or collapses into a second, wider round. [6]

Recent official positions

Escalation timeline since 2023

The timeline below condenses the events that moved the regional system from a Gaza-centred war to a multi-front confrontation involving Lebanon, Syria, Iraq, the Red Sea, and direct Iran–Israel war. The key pattern is cumulative: each theatre repeatedly fed the next, and each pause proved narrower than the previous one. [13]

Two features of this timeline matter most for forward assessment. First, escalation has repeatedly jumped theatres: Gaza triggered Lebanon; Lebanon and Syria provided routes and targets for Iran-linked actors; the Damascus strike triggered Iran’s first direct attack; Iran war then re-energised the Lebanon and Gulf fronts. Second, the system now has serial ceasefires without agreed end states, which is why resumption risk remains high even when headline violence falls. [14]

Ceasefires, violations and indicators of renewed fighting

Current status by theatre

Taken together, these ceasefires are operational pauses, not stable political settlements. None of the core disputes has been resolved: Hamas’s future, Hezbollah’s weapons, Israel’s buffer zones, Iran’s uranium stockpile, Hormuz’s status, or Iraq’s militia question. That is why incident rates can fall temporarily without materially reducing strategic risk. [20]

Scenarios for a wider Iran–Israel war

The most useful way to think about “wider Iran–Israel war” now is as a renewed direct phase that reactivates multiple fronts simultaneously. The pathway diagram below summarises the main contagion routes suggested by current activity in Lebanon, Iraq, the Gulf and the Red Sea. [21]

Actor and capability matrix

Scenario matrix

My overall probability judgement is therefore: best case low-to-medium, most likely high, worst case low but dangerous enough to dominate contingency planning. That judgement is an inference, but it is tightly grounded in the present mismatch between political objectives and the repeated failure of ceasefires to convert into durable settlement. [31]

Global implications and Africa

The global strategic stakes are unusually concentrated around two chokepoints. The Strait of Hormuz carried about 20 million barrels per day in 2024, roughly 20% of global petroleum liquids consumption, and around one-fifth of global LNG trade. Meanwhile, the Red Sea/Suez system remains fragile after the shipping disruptions that began in late 2023. By January 2024, UNCTAD said monthly Suez transits were down 49% from peak levels, and the World Bank later found that by October 2024 rerouted cargo and tankers were travelling 48% and 38% farther, respectively, with global supply-chain stress rising to 2.3 million TEUs in December 2024. That means a renewed Iran-centred war would strike both the Gulf energy artery and the Red Sea/Suez trade corridor at once. [32]

That risk is already visible in prices and diplomacy. Reuters reported Brent crude spiking above $126 a barrel on 30 April 2026 as the Iran war deepened, while Qatar, Türkiye and the UAE all warned that renewed fighting would threaten global security, energy markets and freedom of navigation. Reuters has also estimated that the war has already imposed at least $25 billion in corporate costs globally, even before any second round. [33]

Africa impact assessment

Africa’s exposure is highly uneven. Net oil importers face the sharpest near-term pain through fuel, transport, inflation and current-account pressure. Egypt is the single most exposed major African state because it combines direct adjacency to Gaza, reliance on Suez revenues, higher energy import costs, and substantial remittance dependence linked to Gulf labour markets. Some oil exporters, notably Nigeria, may receive a short-run revenue lift, but even there the net benefit is limited by inflation, market volatility and slower global growth. The IMF and Reuters both caution that energy importers have the least room to absorb the shock, while even exporters may not gain in net terms. [34]

Two Africa-specific channels deserve special emphasis. First, the conflict worsens the economics of moving goods to and from Africa. The World Bank found that the South and East Africa/Indian Ocean region accounted for 4.8% of global supply-chain stress in the later phase of the Red Sea crisis, meaning that rerouting around the Cape is not a simple continental windfall; it raises logistics costs even when some southern ports or bunkering points gain traffic. Second, monetary policy becomes harder almost everywhere: Reuters reports African central bankers and analysts warning that oil turbulence could halt easing cycles in Kenya, Ghana, Zambia and Nigeria, while Uganda and Angola were already reacting more cautiously. [43]

Peacekeeping is a smaller but still concrete African exposure. UNIFIL had 7,478 peacekeepers from 47 troop-contributing countries as of 1 May 2026. The February 2026 UN peacekeeping roster shows African contributions in UNIFIL from Tanzania (76 personnel), Kenya (2) and Zambia (2), while Zambia also had 3 personnel in UNDOF. Violence against peacekeepers in Lebanon in March–April 2026 — which Reuters says included deaths from fire linked preliminarily to both Israel and Hezbollah, plus a later attack likely by Hezbollah — demonstrates that a renewed Lebanon war would carry direct force-protection risks for troop contributors, even if current African numbers are modest. [44]

Uncertainties and assumptions

Several important uncertainties remain. Battlefield damage assessment inside Iran is incomplete; Reuters notes uncertainty over how much of Iran’s 60%-enriched uranium stock survived the 2025 strikes, even though the IAEA believes a little over 200 kg may remain at Isfahan. Casualty figures across Gaza, southern Lebanon and Iran are politically contested and often published with delays. Syria’s internal transition remains fluid, and precise current balances between local actors, Israel, Türkiye, former regime networks and residual Iranian influence are harder to quantify than in Gaza or Lebanon. [45]

The scenario judgements in this report therefore rest on three explicit assumptions. The first is that the current public red lines stated by Israel, Iran and mediators are genuine negotiating positions rather than mere tactical noise. The second is that the present ceasefires are best understood as reversible coercive pauses, because they have not settled the core issues of disarmament, buffer zones, sovereignty, uranium, sanctions or maritime control. The third is that Africa’s main exposure remains economic and maritime, not direct combat spillover, unless Red Sea and Horn routes deteriorate much further. These assumptions are contestable, but at present they are the most defensible reading of the evidence. [46]

The bottom line is straightforward: the region is not on a stable path to peace, but neither is it yet locked into immediate total war. The highest-confidence judgement is a prolonged phase of contested ceasefires and intermittent escalation — with the Iran front remaining the principal regional trigger, the Lebanon front the fastest military escalator, Iraq and the Gulf the most plausible routes for geographic widening, and Africa the most exposed external region through fuel, shipping, inflation and remittance channels rather than through direct combat. [47]

[1] [20] [29] https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/board-peace-envoy-warns-un-that-gaza-division-risks-becoming-permanent-2026-05-21/

[2] [7] [31] [46] https://www.gov.il/en/pages/pm-netanyahu-s-statement-on-lebanon-and-iran-16-apr-2026

[3] [19] [28] [47] https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/tehran-reviewing-latest-us-response-trump-suggests-he-can-wait-2026-05-21/

[4] [35] https://www.reuters.com/world/africa/regional-challenges-cost-egypt-around-7-bln-suez-canal-revenues-2024-sisi-says-2024-12-26/

[5] https://www.gov.il/en/pages/statement-from-pm-netanyahu-17-april-2026

[6] https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/iran-israels-open-warfare-after-decades-shadow-war-2024-04-14/

[8] [23] [45] https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/supreme-leader-says-enriched-uranium-must-stay-iran-iranian-sources-say-2026-05-21/

[9] [27] https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/lebanon-president-says-future-deal-will-not-cede-territory-2026-04-17/

[10] [15] https://mofa.gov.qa/en/qatar/latest-articles/latest-news/details/2026/05/18/qatar-deems-recognition-of-nakba-a-key-to-just–lasting-palestinian-peace

[11] https://ina.iq/en/politics/48637-national-security-adviser-says-weapons-control-file-will-be-highly-important-in-next-government-formation.html

[12] https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/uaes-gargash-sees-50-50-odds-us-iran-deal-warns-against-renewed-fighting-2026-05-22/

[13] [14] Israel-Lebanon border warfare: what is the history?

[16] [21] [24] https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/israel-lebanon-agree-extend-ceasefire-by-45-days-us-state-dept-says-2026-05-15/

[17] https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/israel-watching-syria-closely-after-historic-fall-assad-2024-12-08/

[18] [25] https://www.reuters.com/investigations/iran-spent-years-fostering-proxies-iraq-now-many-arent-eager-join-war-2026-03-06/

[22] https://www.reuters.com/business/aerospace-defense/israel-killed-30-iranian-security-chiefs-11-nuclear-scientists-israeli-official-2025-06-27/

[26] https://www.reuters.com/world/suez-canal-authority-says-stability-returning-red-sea-2025-01-31/

[30] https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/tankers-exit-hormuz-trump-vance-talk-up-iran-deal-prospects-2026-05-20/

[32] https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=65504

[33] https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/oil-prices-extend-gains-us-iran-war-deadlock-keeps-supply-off-market-2026-04-30/

[34] https://www.imf.org/en/blogs/articles/2026/04/22/how-the-middle-east-war-has-affected-oil-exporters-and-importers

[36] https://www.reuters.com/world/africa/kenya-cut-diesel-price-after-protests-against-soaring-energy-costs-2026-05-22/

[37] [38] https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/fuel-prices-surge-africa-iran-war-hits-supply-2026-04-01/

[39] https://www.reuters.com/world/africa/moroccos-inflation-rate-rises-17-april-2026-05-22/

[40] https://blogs.worldbank.org/en/nasikiliza/empowering-somalias-economy-beyond-remittances-for-long-term-stability-afe-0225

[41] [43] https://documents1.worldbank.org/curated/en/099253002102539789/pdf/IDU10b8b59671dbc814cfc19c4a1299ff54854ba.pdf

[42] https://www.reuters.com/world/africa/sp-lifts-nigerias-ratings-improving-macroeconomic-profile-2026-05-15/

[44] https://unifil.unmissions.org/en/unifil-troop-contributing-countries

The post SITREP: West Asia’s Cascading Conflict System & the Impact on Africa appeared first on FREENET AFRICA.

The narrow waterway between the Persian Gulf and the Gulf of Oman is only around 21 miles, or 34 kilometres, wide at its narrowest point. Yet it carries a level of strategic weight almost impossible to exaggerate. The International Energy Agency describes it as a route through which around 20 million barrels of oil per day normally pass, equal to roughly a quarter of global seaborne oil trade, with around 80% of that crude destined for Asia. It also carries a major share of global liquefied natural gas, including most LNG exports from Qatar and the UAE. (IEA)

That makes Hormuz more than a regional maritime passage. It is a global economic organ. When it is obstructed, the effects do not remain in West Asia. They move into petrol prices in Europe, fertilizer costs in Africa, factory inputs in Asia, airline schedules, food prices, inflation figures and household budgets.

Recent reports suggest traffic through the strait remains severely reduced, with Reuters reporting that daily transits have fallen from a normal range of around 125–140 vessels to only a handful in recent days. Oil prices have responded accordingly, with Brent crude reported around $108.68 per barrel and WTI near $96.96 as markets absorb the continuing disruption. (Reuters)

The immediate story is energy. But the deeper story is dependency.

Hormuz is often described as an oil chokepoint, but that understates the issue. Oil is the most visible commodity, but it is not the only one. The strait is also central to LNG flows, petrochemicals, plastics, fertilizer inputs, sulfur, aluminum-related supply chains and other industrial materials. Many of these are not easily rerouted. Pipelines can shift some crude flows, but they cannot replace the maritime movement of ammonia, urea or other bulk inputs needed by agriculture and industry.

That matters because fertilizer is food before it becomes a commodity. Nitrogen fertilizers support a large share of modern agricultural output. If key inputs fail to arrive during planting or application windows, the consequences are delayed but severe: lower yields, higher prices and pressure on already vulnerable food-importing countries.

For import-dependent economies, especially in parts of Africa, South Asia and Latin America, the Hormuz crisis is therefore not just about the cost of fuel. It is about whether fertilizer arrives on time, whether food imports remain affordable and whether governments can absorb another external price shock. Brazil, India, Pakistan, Bangladesh and many African countries are especially exposed to fertilizer disruptions because their agricultural systems rely heavily on imported inputs.

Europe is also feeling the shock, particularly in aviation and industry. The head of the International Energy Agency warned in mid-April that Europe had “maybe six weeks” of jet fuel left if supplies remained blocked, with flight cancellations possible if the situation did not improve. (AP News) Lufthansa has already announced cuts to around 20,000 short-haul flights through October, citing soaring jet fuel costs and the need to save fuel. (Al Jazeera)

The aviation impact is only one visible symptom. Higher oil and gas prices feed through refineries, trucking, shipping, chemicals, plastics, construction materials and consumer goods. Energy inflation rarely stays in one sector. It spreads.

This is why the closure or near-closure of Hormuz has the character of a global stress test. It exposes how much of the world economy has been built on the assumption that a few narrow maritime corridors will remain open, insured and navigable. Once insurers withdraw war-risk cover, shipping becomes not merely dangerous but commercially impossible. No insurance means fewer vessels. Fewer vessels mean fewer cargoes. Fewer cargoes mean shortages, price spikes and production delays.

There are signs of limited movement. Reuters reported that an ADNOC-managed LNG tanker recently crossed the strait, appearing off India after weeks without transmitting a signal. But analysts cautioned that one successful crossing does not prove that the route is safe or commercially reliable. (Reuters) That distinction is crucial. A chokepoint does not need to be sealed with concrete to damage the world economy. It only has to become uncertain enough for shipping, insurance and finance to hesitate.

The crisis also underlines a strategic irony. The Gulf states themselves are deeply vulnerable to disruption in the same waterway through which they export energy. Several depend heavily on imported food, consumer goods and industrial supplies. If Hormuz becomes unreliable for outgoing oil and gas, it also becomes unreliable for incoming food and essential materials.

For Asia, the stakes are direct. China, India, Japan, South Korea and other major economies depend on Gulf energy flows. If tanker traffic remains restricted, they face higher import bills, tighter supply and stronger competition for alternative cargoes. For Europe, the shock arrives through fuel, inflation and industrial costs. For the United States, even with larger domestic production, oil is priced globally. A disruption in Hormuz still reaches American petrol pumps.

Goldman Sachs has reportedly lifted its oil price expectations, warning that Brent could move toward $120 per barrel if Gulf exports recover slowly. (marketwatch.com) That is the market’s way of saying what policymakers often avoid saying plainly: the world has no simple replacement for Hormuz.

The most dangerous assumption is that this is only a temporary regional drama. The strait has always been strategic, but the modern economy has made it systemic. A disruption there does not merely interrupt trade. It tests the architecture of globalization itself: just-in-time logistics, concentrated energy supply, specialized fertilizer production, global aviation, food security and inflation management.

The world is discovering that resilience is not the same as efficiency. For decades, economies optimized for low cost, speed and concentration. Hormuz shows the price of that model. A single corridor can connect refineries, farms, hospitals, airports, factories and households across continents. When it closes, the map of dependency becomes visible.

That is the real lesson of the Strait of Hormuz. It is not simply a strip of water between Iran and Oman. It is a global pressure point where energy security, food security, industrial production and geopolitics meet.

And right now, that pressure point is under strain.

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A ceasefire may still exist on paper between the United States and Iran, but the region itself tells a different story. Zionist strikes on Lebanon, renewed pressure around Iran, and the continuing disruption of shipping through the Strait of Hormuz have stripped away any real sense of calm. Diplomats may still use the language of de-escalation, but the military and economic facts point to something far more brittle: a tense and deeply unstable stand-off.

What is emerging is not peace, but a suspended conflict. The guns have not fallen silent. They have merely shifted rhythm.

Nowhere is that clearer than in the Strait of Hormuz. Although some vessel movement has resumed, the waterway remains far from normal. Shipping traffic is still heavily constrained, insurers remain wary, and operators continue to treat the passage as a live risk zone rather than a restored commercial route. In effect, one of the world’s most important energy chokepoints remains under pressure, with consequences extending from Gulf ports to global fuel markets.

The strategic meaning is unmistakable. Even without a formal declaration of wider war, Iran and its allies have shown that they can continue to exert pressure where it matters most: on energy, shipping, logistics and confidence. That alone is enough to keep markets nervous and governments on edge.

The damage already done to military and energy infrastructure has only sharpened that sense of vulnerability. In Kuwait, the earlier strike on a U.S. military facility linked to the 103rd Sustainment Command has taken on renewed significance as the scale of losses becomes clearer. The attack was not merely symbolic. It exposed the extent to which forward-deployed American assets in the Gulf remain exposed to modern drone and missile warfare, even under the umbrella of supposed deterrence.

For Washington, that is politically uncomfortable and strategically serious. The image of overwhelming control is much harder to sustain when key facilities can be hit, personnel can be killed, and the region’s most expensive defensive architecture still cannot guarantee security.

Saudi Arabia has also felt the pressure. Damage to the East-West pipeline system, especially at a compressor or pumping node, has underlined the fragility of the kingdom’s alternative export routes. That pipeline matters precisely because it offers Riyadh a way to move crude to the Red Sea while reducing dependence on Hormuz. If that network is degraded, even partially, then one of the Gulf’s main fallback options becomes less reliable at the exact moment it is most needed.

This is the deeper story behind the headlines. The conflict is no longer only about dramatic military exchanges or televised political statements. It is about pressure points. The side that can raise costs, slow movement, reduce confidence and expose weakness without tipping the region into all-out war gains enormous leverage.

That is why the current moment feels so dangerous. It is not a settled peace, but a contest of controlled instability.

The political theatre has been no less revealing. Donald Trump’s effort to project influence over events has collided with the hard realities of regional power politics. Reports of mediation efforts and ceasefire understandings have been overshadowed by the Zionist entity’s own actions and Benjamin Netanyahu’s refusal to behave as though Washington alone can set the tempo. That matters, because it reveals a widening gap between American messaging and regional autonomy.

For years, the assumption in much Western analysis was that the United States, whatever its limits, still retained the ability to orchestrate outcomes among allies and contain adversaries through pressure, inducement and force. That assumption now looks badly strained. The Zionist colony continues to calculate according to its own security doctrine. Iran continues to test the outer limits of confrontation. Gulf states remain exposed. And Washington, despite its military reach, increasingly looks like a power reacting to events rather than fully shaping them.

Even the controversy surrounding the missing U.S. Navy MQ-4C Triton drone fits this pattern. Whether the aircraft was shot down or lost for other reasons, the episode has fed a broader perception of American exposure. The Triton is not a minor asset. It is one of the most advanced surveillance platforms in the U.S. arsenal, built for high-end reconnaissance and strategic awareness. Its disappearance over such a sensitive zone is therefore more than a technical incident. It is a symbolic blow, one that reinforces the wider impression of contested skies, contested seas and contested prestige.

And prestige matters. In crises like this, military capability is only half the equation. The other half is perception: who appears strong, who appears in control, who appears able to impose costs without suffering them. Once that balance starts to shift, even subtly, the geopolitical consequences become much larger than any single strike or lost aircraft.

This is also why the economic dimension cannot be treated as secondary. Markets may fluctuate daily, but traders are reading the region correctly. Oil did not simply react to a ceasefire headline and settle. Prices dipped, then recovered as it became clear that the ceasefire had not produced restored normality. Hormuz remains constrained. Saudi infrastructure has been damaged. Shipping remains risky. Diplomacy remains fragile. In other words, the market has begun pricing not peace, but interruption.

That may prove to be one of the most consequential features of this phase of the crisis. West Asia does not need to collapse into a formal regional war to shake the world economy. It only needs to remain unpredictable enough, long enough, to keep energy flows uncertain and freight risk elevated. In a tightly connected global system, ambiguity itself becomes a weapon.

That is what makes the phrase “ceasefire illusion” so resonant. The illusion lies not in the technical existence of a truce, but in the idea that such a truce automatically means stability. It does not. A ceasefire can exist while missiles still fly elsewhere, while shipping lanes remain threatened, while proxy fronts stay active, while allies ignore one another, and while markets continue to signal fear.

That is West Asia today: a battlefield in partial pause, but not at rest.

For the United States, this is a moment of strategic discomfort. For the Zionist colony, it is a moment of continued military assertion. For Iran, it is a moment to demonstrate endurance, leverage and the ability to impose friction without inviting immediate regime-threatening retaliation. For the Gulf monarchies, it is a reminder that infrastructure once assumed protected can still be hit. And for the rest of the world, it is a warning that global order remains deeply vulnerable to a region that is still far from resolved.

So the central reality remains unchanged. There is no true peace. But there is also, not yet, a declared and unrestrained war. Instead there is something in between: a hard, dangerous, unstable middle ground in which all sides continue to test limits while insisting they are avoiding catastrophe.

History shows that such periods can last longer than expected. It also shows they can collapse very quickly.

For now, West Asia remains suspended in that perilous space between diplomacy and escalation, where ceasefires hold just enough to prevent total war, but fail badly enough to keep the region on the brink.

The post Persian Gulf War & the Ceasefire Illusion: West Asia Still on the Brink appeared first on FREENET AFRICA.

After nearly two years of grueling conflict, 2025 saw the scales tip decisively in Russia’s favor in Ukraine. Moscow’s forces not only held their ground but expanded control over eastern and southern territories, forcing a bitter reckoning in Kyiv. By late 2025, the Ukrainian government – starved of munitions and facing economic ruin – agreed to abandon its long-held NATO ambitions and accept a U.S.-brokered peace framework that ceded territory to Russiapresstv.irpresstv.ir. This marked a humiliating end to NATO’s campaign: Ukraine’s renunciation of NATO membership was “a bitter acknowledgment of the strategic dead end” after a prolonged war of attritionpresstv.ir. Western officials quietly conceded that no viable alternative remained but to strike a peace deal on Russia’s termspresstv.ir.

The implications of Russia’s assured victory reverberated globally. Russia’s former president Dmitry Medvedev, in a triumphalist speech, declared that “Moscow’s victory in the Ukraine conflict will lay the groundwork for a more just world” and even suggested a new Russian national holiday would commemorate the victorygroups.google.comgroups.google.com. Medvedev stressed that Russia’s goal was to destroy the “Kiev neo-Nazi regime” – not the Ukrainian people – and vowed no hostile Western-backed regime would ever again be allowed on Russia’s bordersgroups.google.comgroups.google.com. Such rhetoric underscored the Kremlin’s confidence that it had weathered NATO’s challenge. Indeed, by year’s end, Western unity on Ukraine had fractured. European allies, exhausted by economic strain and increasingly skeptical of an unwinnable war, threw support behind the U.S. peace plan that effectively ratified Russia’s annexations as the “lesser evil” compared to endless warpresstv.irpresstv.ir. NATO’s credibility suffered a stark blow – its promises to Kyiv were broken, and its vaunted deterrence power tarnished by Russia’s resilience.

For Ukraine, the collapse was catastrophic. President Volodymyr Zelensky’s government, once adamant about reclaiming all territory, was compelled to accept a ceasefire that freezes the conflict largely on Russia’s termspresstv.irpresstv.ir. In exchange for a pause in the fighting, Ukraine must demilitarize its army and codify neutrality – a de facto abandonment of the Western integration it had pursued since 2014presstv.irpresstv.ir. This turn of events – a “strategic vacuum” as Press TV described itpresstv.ir – laid bare the harsh reality: NATO would not – and perhaps could not – rescue Ukraine from Russia’s grinding offensive. European diplomats privately acknowledged that without U.S. military weight, Ukraine “cannot withstand Russia”presstv.ir. Yet Washington under President Donald Trump had explicitly refused to commit troops, counseling Europe to handle its own neighborhoodpresstv.irpresstv.ir. The result is a Ukraine shattered and partitioned, its economy in ruins and tens of thousands of civilians deadpresstv.ir, while Moscow tightens its grip on the Donbas and Crimea.

The assured Russian victory also accelerated a global geopolitical shift. Most of the Global South refused to isolate Moscow; major developing powers treated the outcome as a lesson in Western overreach. As Medvedev put it, Russia’s success marked “the first step toward…a multipolar world order”, one based on “mutual respect and real international law” rather than Washington’s dominancegroups.google.com. In this narrative – echoed by media like RT – NATO’s defeat in Ukraine symbolized the waning of Western unilateral power and the rise of a fairer balance. While Western officials might contest that framing, few could deny that by the end of 2025, U.S.-led attempts to weaken Moscow had failed. Ukraine’s collapse became “an epic Western strategic failure”, as even some Western observers admitted, on par with past debacles like Iraqtheguardian.com. With Russia’s security goals largely met, and NATO’s eastern expansion halted, 2025 closed with Moscow ascendant in Eastern Europe – and the post-Cold War era of unchecked NATO enlargement effectively over.

Gaza Under Siege: Israeli Genocidal Campaign and Iran’s Resistance Axis

In parallel with the showdown in Eastern Europe, the year 2025 bore witness to a devastating conflict in the Middle East that many around the world labeled a genocide. Israel’s ongoing military operations in the Palestinian territories – especially the Gaza Strip – reached unprecedented levels of destruction and civilian suffering. Israeli forces pounded densely populated Gaza cities with relentless air and artillery strikes, ostensibly targeting Hamas fighters but in practice killing thousands of men, women, and children. By autumn 2025, Palestinian casualties in Gaza since the war’s onset in October 2023 had surpassed a staggering 63,000 killed (including over 20,000 children according to one Save the Children report) and 160,000 woundedpresstv.irpresstv.ir. Entire neighborhoods lay in ruins, and Gaza’s infrastructure – from hospitals and schools to water and power systems – was pulverized. International rights groups, including within Israel, concluded that Israel’s conduct met the legal definition of genocidepresstv.irpresstv.ir.

A United Nations inquiry and the world’s leading genocide scholars delivered a damning verdict: Israel was “engaged in systematic and widespread crimes against humanity, war crimes, and genocide” in Gazapresstv.ir. In a nearly unanimous vote, the International Association of Genocide Scholars (IAGS) passed a resolution declaring that Israel’s actions – from the deliberate leveling of homes and destruction of food and medical infrastructure to the enforced starvation siege – fulfill the 1948 Genocide Convention criteriapresstv.irpresstv.ir. As evidence, they cited Israel’s explicit tactics: “deliberate destruction of agricultural fields, food warehouses, and bakeries” combined with choking off humanitarian aid, inflicting “unlivable conditions resulting in starvation” of the civilian populationpresstv.irpresstv.ir. By late 2025, Gaza’s malnutrition crisis had turned into a famine, with hundreds of children perishing from hunger and preventable disease under the total blockadepresstv.irpresstv.ir. The international consensus in the Global South – and among a growing chorus of Western human rights voices – was that Israel’s campaign was not mere counterinsurgency but an attempt to annihilate Gaza’s societypresstv.irpresstv.ir. The International Criminal Court moved forward on investigations, and arrest warrants were reportedly issued for top Israeli officials on charges of war crimespresstv.ir.

Such was the backdrop against which resistance forces and their backers mobilized. Far from isolating and weakening the Palestinian cause, Israel’s onslaught — widely seen as “genocidal” — galvanized a region-wide “Axis of Resistance” led by Iran. The Islamic Republic, long a patron of Palestinian and Lebanese militant groups, seized the moment to ramp up support for those fighting Israel. Tehran’s leaders framed the Gaza war as a defining battle against oppression, casting Israel as a “terror ringleader” whose aggression threatened the entire regionpresstv.irpresstv.ir. Iran’s Revolutionary Guard Corps funneled weapons and technology to Hamas and Islamic Jihad in Gaza, even as those groups waged fierce urban warfare against Israeli ground incursions. To Israel’s north, Hezbollah in Lebanon engaged in the most serious border clashes since 2006, tying down substantial Israeli forces. And in an unprecedented show of transregional solidarity, Yemen’s Houthi movement (Ansarullah) opened a new front: throughout 2025, the Houthis launched near-daily long-range drone and missile strikes against Israeli targets, from Red Sea shipping to infrastructure in Eilatpresstv.ir. In response, Israel even conducted airstrikes on Yemen’s capital Sanaa, assassinating senior Yemeni officials – a move Iran’s top commander decried as a sign of Tel Aviv’s “deep fear of the expansion of the Resistance Axis”presstv.irpresstv.ir.

Meanwhile, Iran’s regional clout hit new highs amid the chaos. As Arab publics and many Muslim-majority nations rallied to the Palestinian cause, governments traditionally aligned with Washington felt pressured to distance themselves from Israel’s actions. Iran skillfully used forums like the Islamic Cooperation Council and its diplomatic channels to call out what it termed Western hypocrisy and to demand protection for Palestinians. Tehran’s message – that Israel’s impunity is enabled by the U.S. and must be resisted collectively – resonated widelypresstv.irpresstv.ir. Even some leaders of U.S.-allied Arab states issued unusually sharp condemnations of Israel. In Syria, events underscored Iran’s growing role as a regional power-broker. Late 2024 had seen the sudden toppling of the Syrian government of Bashar al-Assad – an Iranian ally – after a Turkey- and Western-backed rebel offensive reached Damascus, aided by intense Israeli airstrikespresstv.ir. A hardline Sunni coalition led by Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) took power in Damascus with covert Western approval, fundamentally altering the balance in the Levantpresstv.irpresstv.ir. Yet Iran did not accept this fait accompli. Throughout 2025, Tehran lent quiet support to a broad Syrian resistance front against the new HTS-led regime. In Syria’s coastal and central heartland, Alawite, Shia, and other minority communities rose up in mass protests condemning the “increasing violence” of the Islamist government and its foreign patronspresstv.irpresstv.ir. A former Syrian Army officer announced the creation of a “Military Council for the Liberation of Syria,” explicitly vowing to “topple the current regime” installed in Damascus and “liberate all Syrian land from occupying terrorist forces”presstv.irpresstv.ir. This guerrilla resistance – implicitly backed by Iran and Russia – has bogged down the HTS-led authorities and their Western supporters in yet another protracted struggle.

Iran’s multifaceted support for regional resistance has enhanced its prestige among anti-colonial and anti-Zionist movements. By positioning itself as the champion of Palestinian survival and Syrian sovereignty, Tehran strengthened the Axis of Resistance as a counterweight to U.S.-Israeli hegemony. Iranian officials noted that even non-Arab countries like Turkey openly challenged Israel’s actions in Gaza, reflecting a shifting norm: Muslim-majority nations are less afraid of breaking with the West on core issues of Israel/Palestine. In Tehran’s view, the year ended with Israel more isolated and the Resistance axis more unified. “Tel Aviv’s bloodshed only deepens its strategic nightmare,” argued Iran’s military Chief of Staff, Major General Abdolrahim Mousavi, pointing to the “growing unity among regional nations in defending the Palestinian cause”presstv.irpresstv.ir. If 2025 was a dark year for Gaza’s people, it was also a year that solidified a historic realignment: an empowered Iran-led bloc intent on checking Western allies’ dominance in West Asia, from the rivers of Palestine to the mountains of southern Lebanon and beyond.

China and India Reshape Global Power through BRICS and Diplomacy

While wars and turmoil rattled the West and Middle East, Asia’s two emerging superpowers – China and India – spent 2025 steadily expanding their global influence. Both nations harnessed their economic might and leadership of multilateral forums to push for a more multipolar, South-centered world order. Together with other rising powers, Beijing and New Delhi positioned themselves as champions of the “Global South,” emphasizing development, sovereignty, and non-interference – in stark contrast to what they describe as decades of Western hegemony. The BRICS bloc (Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa) became the primary vehicle of this agenda. In 2025, BRICS completed a historic expansion, admitting six new members – Egypt, Ethiopia, Iran, Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Indonesia – and by doing so, transformed into a true heavyweight coalition encompassing over half the world’s population and a large share of its economic outputen.chinadiplomacy.org.cnen.chinadiplomacy.org.cn. By one measure (purchasing-power parity GDP), the enlarged BRICS now accounts for roughly 44% of global economic output and 50% of humanityen.chinadiplomacy.org.cnen.chinadiplomacy.org.cn, a striking symbol of the shift in economic gravity away from the G7 West.

The geopolitical and economic rise of China and India was evident on multiple fronts. China, already the world’s second-largest economy, solidified itself as the engine of South-South cooperation. Beijing doubled down on its signature Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) infrastructure program, which by this year connected some 150+ countries via railways, ports, and fiber-optic networksen.chinadiplomacy.org.cn. At the third Belt and Road Forum, President Xi Jinping welcomed dozens of Global South leaders and signed tens of billions in new trade and investment deals, from green energy projects in Africa to high-speed rail in Southeast Asia. China’s model of state-led development continued to attract developing nations’ admiration: the country’s success in lifting hundreds of millions from poverty and becoming a world leader in industries like clean technology was held up as “an inspiration for the Global South”, showing that alternatives to the Western neoliberal model existglobaltimes.cnglobaltimes.cn. Indeed, in 2025 China led the world in green innovation, filing over 100,000 low-carbon patents – more than the next several countries combineden.chinadiplomacy.org.cn. This underscored how China is leveraging its technological prowess to shape future markets (electric vehicles, solar and battery supply chains, etc.) and help fellow developing countries leapfrog ahead.

India, for its part, emerged increasingly confident on the world stage as well. Now the world’s most populous nation and fifth-largest economy, India positioned itself as the voice of the Global South in international forums. During 2025, Indian diplomacy bridged East and West: for instance, New Delhi maintained cordial ties with Washington but also refused to join Western sanctions on Russia, insisting on strategic autonomy. Under Prime Minister Narendra Modi, India took on leadership roles in forums like the G20 (where the African Union’s admission this year, strongly backed by India and China, symbolized a more inclusive order) and in the Shanghai Cooperation Organization and BRICS. Indian officials frequently echoed calls for multipolarity, arguing that “as major developing countries, both China and India hope to achieve world multipolarity” and must strengthen cooperation to reform global governanceglobaltimes.cn. Notably, India played host to a Global South Summit in early 2025 that brought together over 120 developing nations to coordinate positions ahead of U.N. and G20 meetings – a clear effort to present a united southern front on issues from debt relief to climate finance.

Crucially, China and India worked together within BRICS to challenge Western dominance of finance and trade architecture. A landmark achievement of the 2025 BRICS summit in Rio de Janeiro was agreement on mechanisms to reduce reliance on the U.S. dollar in international tradeglobaltimes.cnglobaltimes.cn. BRICS finance ministers announced the formation of a technical committee to study a potential joint currency or unit of account for the blocglobaltimes.cn. While a full “BRICS currency” remains a distant goal, the member states made concrete progress on de-dollarization: by 2025, China and Russia were conducting over 80% of their bilateral trade in yuan and rubles rather than dollarsglobaltimes.cnglobaltimes.cn, and Brazil had sealed a pact with China to use yuan-real for all trade, bypassing the dollar entirelyglobaltimes.cn. Even India – traditionally cautious about challenging the dollar – began allowing its biggest refiner to purchase Russian crude oil in Chinese yuanglobaltimes.cn. These steps, coupled with the New Development Bank (BRICS’ own multilateral lender) raising the share of loans it issues in local currencies, show an accelerating “weaving of a non-dollar web” in global commerceglobaltimes.cnglobaltimes.cn.

Strategically, both Asian giants also expanded their regional leadership. China took a lead role in mediating conflicts and fostering new security alignments in Asia. It notably helped de-escalate border tensions between longtime rivals Iran and Saudi Arabia (having brokered their diplomatic rapprochement in 2023) and supported peace talks in civil strife-torn Myanmar. India, meanwhile, projected influence across the Indian Ocean and into Africa – for example, investing in East African port projects and security cooperation with Indian Ocean island states. In South Asia, India’s economic weight made it a de facto guarantor for smaller neighbors’ stability (such as Sri Lanka’s debt restructuring). Both countries also found common cause in calling out Western hypocrisy on climate and trade. At U.N. climate negotiations, China and India led the G77 in demanding that the U.S. and EU deliver on climate finance pledges, arguing it was unjust for the West to expect developing nations to curb growth without adequate support.

It was not all smooth sailing: China and India still have a thorny bilateral relationship, marked by an unresolved Himalayan border dispute and competition for influence. Yet, pragmatism largely prevailed in 2025. As a Global Times editorial observed, “strengthening interaction [between China and India] is a rational choice in a multipolar world”globaltimes.cn. And indeed, at BRICS and other forums, New Delhi and Beijing found alignment on broad objectives: defending national sovereignty norms, pushing U.N. reform to give the Global South a greater voice, and developing alternative economic institutions not dominated by Washington. The rise of China and India thus went hand in hand with the rise of BRICS as a geopolitical force. With BRICS nations now spanning Latin America, Africa, the Middle East, and Eurasia, the group’s clout in agenda-setting grew. Collectively, BRICS pressed for “true multilateralism” as opposed to Western-led “clubs,” emphasizing that international rules should not be dictated by a single bloc’s interestsglobaltimes.cnglobaltimes.cn. By year’s end, analysts noted that the “Global South is now leading” in shaping key global debatesglobaltimes.cnglobaltimes.cn – from reforming the World Bank/IMF (where BRICS countries demanded fairer representation) to establishing technology standards and supply chains outside Western control.

The ascent of these Asian powers – working in concert at times – has undeniably shifted perceptions. Western commentators fretted that Washington’s post-Cold War dominance is steadily eroding as Beijing and New Delhi gain prominence. But from the viewpoint of much of the world, 2025’s trends were encouraging: power is becoming more diffused, and voices outside the Euro-Atlantic are finally being heard. As one Global South scholar wrote, this is “the embodiment of humanity’s collective hope for a world order that respects dignity, diversity and the planet”globaltimes.cnglobaltimes.cn. In other words, the rise of China, India, and their BRICS partners is seen as fostering a more inclusive multipolar world, one not only about great-power rivalry but about elevating the development priorities of billions in Asia, Africa, and Latin America. Whether this nascent multipolar order delivers on its promise of justice and stability remains to be seen. But 2025 made one thing clear: the era of uncontested Western dominance is ending, and new centers of power are ready to assume a leading role in global affairs.

Trump’s Second Term Turmoil: US Credibility Crumbles

The January 2025 inauguration of President Donald Trump for a second term ushered in a tumultuous year for American governance – one marked by policy whiplash, infighting, and a precipitous decline in U.S. global credibility. Campaigning on an “America First” platform redux, Trump wasted no time reversing many of his predecessor’s policies and asserting a more unilateralist, even isolationist, U.S. stance abroad. The result, as seen from allies and adversaries alike, was incoherent governance in Washington – a mix of bellicose threats, abrupt U-turns, and ad-hoc dealmaking that left other nations unsure where America stood. By year’s end, the consensus among foreign policy observers (including some in the U.S.) was that America’s international standing had deteriorated markedly under Trump’s erratic leadershippewresearch.orgre-russia.net.

One stark illustration came with the release of Trump’s new National Security Strategy (NSS), which startled even America’s closest allies in Europe. The NSS – unveiled in November – espoused a throwback neo-isolationism, focusing U.S. attention on the Western Hemisphere and framing traditional European partners as nearly an afterthought. It warned bluntly that Europe faced “civilizational decline” and lambasted EU nations for “failing to end the war in Ukraine” and not controlling their internal problemsglobaltimes.cnglobaltimes.cn. In an extraordinary public rebuke of allies, President Trump gave an interview accusing Europe of “decaying” and free-riding on U.S. security commitmentsglobaltimes.cn. Such rhetoric ruptured the veneer of transatlantic unity. European leaders bristled: Germany’s new chancellor, Friedrich Merz, blasted parts of the U.S. strategy as “unacceptable” and cautioned that Europe “must prepare to manage on its own”globaltimes.cnglobaltimes.cn. Indeed, Trump’s withering criticism “cast a shadow over the continent,” exposing “unprecedented cracks in transatlantic relations,” according to observers in Brusselsglobaltimes.cn. Long-standing U.S. allies in NATO found themselves questioning Washington’s reliability. Was this the same America that once championed the alliance’s unity? In 2025, it seemed not.

Beyond Europe, Trump’s unorthodox approach sowed confusion and distrust. On the one hand, he talked of ending “forever wars” and pushed Ukraine into a ceasefire (as detailed earlier), positioning himself as a dealmaker for peace. On the other hand, his administration opened new fronts of aggression (for instance, against Venezuela) and ratcheted up confrontation with perceived adversaries like Iran and China in unpredictable ways. Foreign diplomats privately complained that U.S. policy could zigzag from one extreme to another on a whim – often via the President’s late-night social media pronouncements. The State Department and Pentagon frequently appeared out of sync, reflecting rival factions in Trump’s team (populist isolationists versus hawkish hardliners). This policy incoherence eroded America’s aura of leadership. Even allies in Asia-Pacific, while welcoming U.S. security presence, quietly started hedging bets – engaging China more – because they feared Washington might abruptly pull back or push them into conflict.

Quantitatively, global opinion of the U.S. under Trump II plummeted. A Pew Research Center survey across 24 countries mid-2025 found that in 19 of those countries, a majority of the public has little or no confidence in Trump’s leadership in world affairspewresearch.orgpewresearch.org. Words like “arrogant” and “dangerous” were most commonly associated with him, and majorities in most nations doubted his competence on issues from climate change to handling international conflictspewresearch.orgpewresearch.org. Strikingly, U.S. favorability ratings fell significantly in 15 countries compared to just a year prior, including a 20+ point drop in close allies like Canada and Swedenpewresearch.org. In Western Europe, confidence in Trump was only somewhat higher than during his first term (2017–2020), and still far lower than the ratings Europeans gave President Bidenpewresearch.org. A global median of just one-third of people trusted Trump to do the right thing internationallyglobaltimes.cnpewresearch.org. As the Global Times, a Chinese outlet, noted pointedly: “The US’ increasingly unilateral behavior… has led to a sharp decline in its prestige and credibility”globaltimes.cnglobaltimes.cn. Even many Americans acknowledge this reputational hit. Far from “Making America Great Again” in the eyes of the world, Trump’s governance style appeared to be isolating the United States and diminishing its soft power.

All this translated into concrete strategic consequences. In Europe, Trump’s berating of NATO partners and refusal to fully back Ukraine pushed EU nations to explore greater strategic autonomy – essentially planning for a future where the U.S. might not be a dependable allypresstv.irglobaltimes.cn. In the Middle East, U.S. credibility as a mediator was nil; Washington was seen as green-lighting Israeli excesses in Gaza and had zero role in ceasefire negotiations, which instead fell to actors like Qatar and Egypt. In the Asia-Pacific, countries nervously watched U.S. dealings with China: Trump imposed new rounds of tariffs on Chinese goods (resurrecting the trade war) and sent mixed signals on Taiwan, at times provoking Beijing and at others claiming he’d struck “the greatest deal” with Xi (though no evidence of any grand bargain materialized, to allies’ bafflement). Such unpredictability made regional states question U.S. steadiness in a crisis. Japan and South Korea, while still allied with Washington, quietly opened back-channel talks with Beijing to insure against an American stumble. Across Latin America, Trump’s aggressive stance on leftist governments (from Cuba to Venezuela) revived memories of Yanqui meddling; Mexico, Argentina, and others distanced themselves from U.S. initiatives.

Meanwhile, at home, governance was chaotic. The Trump White House cycled through key officials at a dizzying rate (by September, Trump was on his third National Security Advisor of the year). Partisan battles led to a brief federal government shutdown in October, further tarnishing the image of U.S. stabilitypresstv.ir. Domestic turmoil – including ongoing congressional investigations into Trump’s personal legal issues – consumed bandwidth that might have been used for international leadership. The overall picture was an America absorbed in its own divisions and led by a mercurial president who often shunned multilateral cooperation. This did not go unnoticed abroad. European public opinion polls in late 2025 showed majorities in countries like France and Germany viewing the U.S. as unreliable or even a destabilizing force internationallyglobaltimes.cnpewresearch.org. Confidence in U.S. global leadership reached near post-WWII lows.

By year’s end, many analysts concluded that Trump’s second term had accelerated an ongoing trend: the decline of U.S. hegemony. Allies were openly speaking of life “after Pax Americana”, hedging their bets between East and West. Rivals were more brazen – Russia and China certainly capitalized on the leadership vacuum. And non-aligned powers in Africa, the Middle East, and Latin America felt emboldened to assert independent policies without fearing U.S. retribution as before. The world’s policeman appeared not only reluctant but also inconsistent and internally conflicted. In sum, 2025 under Trump confirmed what one Asia Times commentator dubbed the “Price of Unpredictability”: America’s friends and foes alike saw the superpower as less credible, less cohesive, and less commanding than at any point in recent memoryforeignaffairs.comglobaltimes.cn. While the U.S. remains a formidable military and economic power, its ability to lead by example or by consensus was dramatically undermined – a development that has accelerated the tilt toward a multipolar world.

Washington’s Warpath in Venezuela: Blockades and “Narco-Terror” Strikes

In a year when U.S. foreign policy often appeared disengaged or erratic elsewhere, one region felt a very direct – and violent – focus of the Trump administration’s attention: Venezuela. The oil-rich South American nation, long at odds with Washington, became the target of a dramatic U.S. military campaign in late 2025 that critics likened to a low-intensity war. Under the banner of combating drug cartels and “narco-terrorism,” the United States launched a series of lethal strikes at sea, imposed a naval blockade, and even seized vessels in international waters – all actions that inflicted civilian casualties and infrastructure damage in Venezuela and its environs.

The campaign intensified through the latter half of the year. In early September, President Trump gave the green light to Joint Task Force “Southern Spear” to use force against suspected narcotics shipments allegedly linked to Venezuela. What followed was unprecedented: U.S. drones, helicopters, and patrol aircraft began tracking and destroying small boats and ships in the Caribbean Sea and eastern Pacific Ocean, often without warning. The U.S. Defense Secretary, former Navy SEAL Pete Hegseth, touted these as “lethal kinetic strikes on vessels operated by Designated Terrorist Organizations”presstv.irpresstv.ir. In practice, many of the targets were go-fast boats and fishing vessels the U.S. claimed were moving cocaine – but the strikes frequently resulted in all aboard being killed, with no due process or opportunity to surrender. By mid-December, the Pentagon acknowledged at least two dozen such strikes since September, with a death toll of at least 99 people – most of them killed in international waters off Venezuela’s coastpresstv.irpresstv.ir. Human rights observers raised alarms that innocent fishermen or coerced traffickers were being summarily executed from the air. One particularly egregious incident saw a U.S. aircraft, after disabling a boat, fire on survivors clinging to floating debris, killing two injured men – a act widely condemned as a possible war crimepresstv.irpresstv.ir.

Image: U.S. Southern Command released footage of a so called “narco-terror” boat being targeted by American forces in the Eastern Pacific, December 2025. The Trump administration’s campaign has reportedly killed nearly 100 people in maritime strikes since Septemberpresstv.ir.

President Trump defended the offensive unabashedly. In mid-December, he stood before cameras and declared the U.S. was engaged in an “armed conflict with the drug cartels,” likening them to ISIS and Al-Qaeda. He accused Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro of turning his country into a narco-state and vowed to “smash” any networks threatening the U.S. with illicit drugs. On December 17, Trump took the extraordinary step of declaring a naval blockade on Venezuela – announcing that all sanctioned Venezuelan oil tankers would be prevented from entering or leaving the country’s portspresstv.irpresstv.ir. This blockade, enforced by U.S. Navy warships and coast guard cutters, sharply escalated the economic warfare on Caracas, essentially cutting off Venezuela’s primary source of revenue (oil exports) by force. Under the blockade, at least one Venezuela-flagged tanker was boarded and seized by U.S. forces, prompting outrage from Caracas. President Maduro lambasted the move as proof that Washington’s real aim was “regime change, not drug control,” and that the U.S. sought to “turn Venezuela into its colony”presstv.irpresstv.ir. He noted that the U.S. had simultaneously assembled its largest regional military presence in decades – including carrier strike groups and thousands of troops on exercises in nearby Guyana and the Caribbean – suggesting an invasion was being contemplatedpresstv.ir.

Inside the U.S., a few voices of caution emerged. Some lawmakers in Congress – including libertarian Republicans and progressive Democrats – questioned the legal basis for what essentially looked like an undeclared war in the eastern Pacific. They pointed out that Congress had not authorized any use of force in Venezuela, and that killing foreign nationals on the high seas in peacetime could violate both U.S. and international law. These concerns led the House of Representatives to vote on measures to limit Trump’s Venezuela aggression, but in November those measures were narrowly defeated amid partisan divisionspresstv.ir. Meanwhile, human rights groups demanded transparency. They pressed Secretary Hegseth to release video from the strikes (especially the controversial September 2 incident), but he flatly refused, even as global criticism mountedpresstv.ir. The administration insisted everything was within the bounds of “lawful warfare” – a claim many legal experts contested given the lack of a clear armed-conflict legal framework for attacking civilian boats.

The impacts on Venezuelan civilians were severe. The naval blockade caused petrol and diesel shortages inland, crippling transport and agriculture. Repair parts for the electrical grid and water systems – many of which Venezuela imported – were delayed or blocked, worsening an already dire humanitarian situation stemming from years of sanctions. And while Trump’s team touted the strikes as successful (they claimed tons of drugs were intercepted), Venezuelan officials said the U.S. attacks often hit legitimate fishing boats and cost innocent lives. Even some regional neighbors voiced disapproval. Mexico and Argentina at the U.N. raised concerns about the precedent set by attacking vessels without due process. CARICOM (Caribbean community) nations worried the aggressive U.S. actions in their waters could endanger their own citizens. The Organization of American States was largely mute (reflecting U.S. influence), but CARICOM and the ALBA bloc of leftist Latin countries called emergency meetings to discuss the crisis.

Geopolitically, Trump’s Venezuela offensive further isolated Washington in Latin America. The timing was noted: it coincided with political shifts in the region. By 2025, left-leaning governments held power in a majority of Latin America’s largest countries – Brazil, Mexico, Argentina, Colombia, Chile – many of whom expressed sympathy for Venezuela’s sovereignty even if they had differences with Maduro. These countries refused to join any U.S. “coalition” against Venezuela. In the U.N. General Assembly, a resolution condemning unilateral force and blockades (clearly aimed at the U.S. campaign) was introduced by the Group of 77 and China – it garnered over 120 votes in favor, though the U.S. vetoed binding action in the Security Council. The Net effect was a further loss of U.S. moral authority. As one Latin American diplomat put it, the U.S. seemed to be re-running the 1989 Panama playbook (when Bush invaded Panama) in slow motion – “but Latin America of 2025 is not the Latin America of the 1980s”, he said, noting that many countries now openly resist U.S. dictates.

Notably, Trump’s own Chief of Staff, Susie Wiles, in an off-message moment, admitted to Vanity Fair that the maritime strikes were indeed part of a broader plan to weaken and oust Maduro’s governmentpresstv.irpresstv.ir. This corroborated what Maduro and others alleged: that the war on “narco-terror” was a pretext to achieve through force what the U.S. had failed to accomplish via economic sanctions and failed coup attempts in previous years. By year’s end, Venezuela remained defiant. Maduro, bolstered by continued support from allies like Cuba, Iran, and to an extent Russia (which sent a few shipments of fuel and food despite the blockade), declared that the U.S. “will simply never” succeed in recolonizing Venezuelapresstv.ir. However, the humanitarian toll on the Venezuelan people was undeniable, raising tough questions about international law and the limits of American power. As the Press TV network bluntly concluded, “Washington’s real objective is regime change”, and in pursuit of that, the U.S. exhibited a “warmongering and colonialist pretense” that global opinion strongly criticizedpresstv.irpresstv.ir.

Europe’s Decline: Ukraine Policy Blowback and Internal Fractures

For the European Union, 2025 was a sobering year of political and economic decline that called into question Europe’s global relevance in the emerging multipolar order. Having tied its fortunes closely to the U.S.-led strategy on Ukraine, the EU found itself bruised by the outcome of the conflict and riven with internal divisions. The prolonged Ukraine war – which Europe helped finance and fuel with arms – exacted a heavy price on EU economies while yielding none of the intended results. Instead of a humbled Russia and a secure Eastern Europe, the EU got a frozen conflict on its border, a resurgent Moscow, and “a costly lesson in realpolitik” about the limits of its influenceglobaltimes.cn. Meanwhile, the sanctions blowback and energy crunch from the war pummeled Europe’s industrial base and drove inflation to record levels, just as social cohesion frayed under waves of political fragmentation.

By abandoning its initial hard-line stance and acquiescing to a negotiated peace that favored Russia, Europe implicitly acknowledged a strategic failure. As Press TV reported, by late 2025 European leaders accepted a U.S. peace framework that required recognizing Russia’s annexation of Ukrainian territories as fait accompli, because they saw no other choice in an “endless and devastating war with the Russian bear”presstv.ir. This capitulation undermined the EU’s credibility enormously – especially in Eastern European member states like Poland and the Baltics, which had trusted Brussels’ resolve. NATO’s inability to deliver a victory (or even a stalemate on favorable terms) for Ukraine also shattered transatlantic unity. The once-solid front between Washington and European capitals developed visible cracks: Western European powers like France and Germany became anxious to end the war to relieve economic strain, even if it meant pressuring Kyiv into painful concessionspresstv.irpresstv.ir. Eastern members felt betrayed by that pragmatism. The result was an EU more internally strained than at any time since the 2015 migrant crisis or even the Brexit saga.

Economically, the EU entered a period of stagnation. The loss of cheap Russian natural gas – pillar of German and Central European industry – had driven energy costs sky-high in 2023-2024. By 2025, the promised alternatives (LNG from the U.S., renewables, etc.) still could not fully cushion the blow. Europe’s growth flatlined; Germany narrowly avoided recession thanks only to government subsidies, while countries like Italy and Hungary saw their economies contract. “Europe is enduring a prolonged period of low growth,” observed China’s Global Times, noting that external crises (like Ukraine) and internal flaws combined to sap Europe’s economic vitalityglobaltimes.cnglobaltimes.cn. Inflation in the eurozone spiked to levels not seen in decades, fueled by energy and defense spending. Meanwhile, the massive costs of supporting Ukraine – tens of billions in aid and the expense of replenishing depleted military stockpiles – strained national budgets. Despite the fanfare of EU unity for Ukraine, by late 2025 several governments were openly balking at new funding for Kyiv. A Brussels summit in December to arrange €50+ billion in long-term aid nearly collapsed, with arguments that Europe’s own reconstruction (post-COVID, post-energy shock) should take priority. As Press TV put it, Europe faced “a shortage of funds” for both supporting Ukraine and rearming itself; its finances were “already straining” under the weight of crisesglobaltimes.cnglobaltimes.cn. The fundamental post-Cold War assumption – that Europe could afford both butter and guns in limitless quantity – was shattered.

Politically, 2025 saw social fragmentation intensify across Europe, feeding the rise of anti-establishment forces. The cost-of-living crisis – energy bills, food prices – ignited frequent street protests from Prague to Paris. Voters vented their anger at mainstream parties seen as out-of-touch or too subservient to Washington’s policies. In multiple EU states, far-right populist parties (some sympathetic to Russia or hostile to continued Ukraine aid) surged in polls. For instance, the Alternative für Deutschland (AfD) in Germany hit record popularity, while Marine Le Pen’s National Rally in France capitalized on discontent with President Macron’s international priorities. “European citizens no longer buy into the ‘values wars’ touted by mainstream politicians,” wrote one analysis, noting people “bear the brunt of the energy crisis, soaring inflation and declining living standards” while elites lecture about abstract principlesglobaltimes.cnglobaltimes.cn. This “democratic deficit” – a yawning gap between EU policy and public sentiment – widened dangerouslyglobaltimes.cn. Trust in national governments eroded, and identification with the EU project diminished. Eastern Europe, too, saw democratic backsliding and defiance of Brussels: Poland and Hungary, already at odds with the EU on rule-of-law issues, dug in further, emboldened by what they viewed as an EU leadership vacuum and hypocrisy (e.g. Brussels preaching rule of law but cozying up to regimes like HTS-ruled Syria for geopolitics).

Europe’s strategic impotence was most embarrassingly displayed in the Middle East. As Gaza burned under Israeli bombardment, European states were deeply divided on how to respond. Some smaller nations (Ireland, Belgium, etc.) condemned Israeli actions and called for ceasefire; but heavyweights like Germany felt constrained by guilt and U.S. pressure to support Israel publicly. The EU as a bloc could say very little of substance – a paralysis that diminished its moral standing globally. Meanwhile, Europe’s pretensions to being a diplomatic power-broker – for example in negotiations over Iran’s nuclear program or mediating in African conflicts – were largely sidelined by more assertive actors (Russia, China, regional powers).

Within the EU, the structure of decision-making itself showed strain. The requirement for unanimous agreement on major issues (sanctions, budgetary moves, enlargement, etc.) led to paralysis or lowest-common-denominator outcomesglobaltimes.cn. For example, Hungary single-handedly held up an EU aid tranche to Ukraine for months, demanding unrelated concessions. On admitting new members (like Ukraine’s own EU candidacy), unity was lacking. This institutional inertia, combined with divergent national interests, led a Chinese professor to quip that Europe “finds itself in a predicament where pulling on one thread unravels the entire tapestry”globaltimes.cnglobaltimes.cn – meaning every major decision risked exposing internal contradictions.

Perhaps most worrying for Brussels is the loss of global influence. Once a trendsetter in trade and regulatory policy, the EU in 2025 found itself largely reacting to agendas set by others. “Europe’s hard power and influence… are diminishing,” concluded the Global Times, citing how the EU struggled to respond to simultaneous internal and external challengesglobaltimes.cnglobaltimes.cn. The United States, under Trump, sidelined Europe on key issues (making deals with Russia over Europe’s head, as seen in the Ukraine settlement negotiations run via Washington and Berlinpresstv.ir). In the Global South, Europe’s stock hit a nadir – its alignment with U.S. sanctions and its perceived neocolonial attitude (especially France’s troubles in Africa) alienated many developing countries. A telling metric: when the U.N. voted on resolutions critical of Western positions (like over Palestine or Russia’s sanctions), more countries than ever before either abstained or supported the non-West line, ignoring European exhortations. The EU’s soft power – its claim to moral high ground, democratic values, economic allure – has taken a beating in an era of rising authoritarian capitalism (exemplified by China) and Western missteps.

Yet, amid the gloomy assessments, some Europeans began charting a path forward. The events of 2025 gave momentum to voices calling for “strategic autonomy” – the idea that Europe must be able to act independently of the U.S. “Pressured by fragile defense frailties, political fractures and a stalling economy, [Europe] has embarked on profound self-examination,” one commentator observedglobaltimes.cn. President Macron of France (fresh off facing domestic unrest) and Chancellor Merz of Germany convened an extraordinary EU council on defense union. There, proposals were floated for joint EU military units and even a European Nuclear Deterrent (via French forces) to reduce reliance on the U.S. NATO remained, but Europeans signaled interest in a parallel security structure under EU control. Furthermore, Europe started rethinking its posture toward emerging powers. Recognizing it could not afford a new Cold War with China, the EU began cautiously rebuilding ties with Beijing. “Europe must carefully consider its relationship with China,” urged Global Times, advising Europe to balance its U.S. ties with a more pragmatic, “complementary cooperation” with Chinaglobaltimes.cnglobaltimes.cn. Indeed, late in the year the EU sent its first delegation to Beijing to discuss investment and technology cooperation since relations soured – a tentative step toward strategic rebalancing.

Still, the road ahead is fraught. As former British PM Tony Blair bluntly warned in December, if the EU does not reform drastically, it risks global irrelevance in the new orderreuters.com. The collapse of its Ukraine strategy and the centrifugal forces pulling at its unity make that warning salient. In 2025, the European Union – long seen as a pillar of the liberal international order – appeared more as a cautionary tale of a bloc caught in transition: overstretched externally, undercoordinated internally. Whether it can renewal through integration and autonomy, or whether it declines into second-tier status on the world stage, remains one of the pressing questions as the multipolar era dawns.

Africa’s Anti-Colonial Turn: Ousting France and Embracing Sovereignty

Across Africa, 2025 was a year of empowerment and pushback – a continent-wide assertion of sovereignty that saw the expulsion of French influence from several former colonies and a bold drive toward Pan-African solidarity. This trend, building for years, reached a crescendo as one African nation after another severed military ties with Paris, ending decades (in some cases over a century) of neo-colonial dominance. In West and Central Africa especially, the message was unmistakable: the era of “Françafrique” – France’s post-colonial sphere of influence – is over.

The shift was dramatic. By 2025, six West African countries – Mali, Guinea, Burkina Faso, Niger, and notably this year, Chad and Ivory Coast – had cut defense cooperation with France and demanded French troops departaljazeera.comaljazeera.com. In quick succession, long-standing French military bases were shut down. In February, France officially withdrew from its last base in Ivory Coast, a country once considered a cornerstone of French West Africapresstv.irpresstv.ir. A ceremonial handover in Abidjan saw the Ivorian flag raised over the base as French forces left, ending a continuous presence that dated back to Ivory Coast’s independence in 1960presstv.irpresstv.ir. French Defense Minister Sébastien Lecornu, presiding over the exit, admitted “the world is changing… our military relationship should change”presstv.ir. But in truth, the change was imposed on Paris by a wave of African “frexit” – a regional rejection of foreign garrisons. Chad, France’s staunchest ally in the Sahel, delivered an even bigger shock when its government announced on its Independence Day that it was ending all French military cooperationvocesdelsur.prensa-latina.cuvocesdelsur.prensa-latina.cu. French troops that had been stationed in Chad for over 6 decades were told to pack up. And in Senegal, a new president – swept to power on a wave of youth discontent – declared it “obvious” that French soldiers would no longer be welcome on Senegalese soil eithervocesdelsur.prensa-latina.cuvocesdelsur.prensa-latina.cu.

By year’s end, French soldiers had been expelled or asked to leave from over 70% of their bases in Africapresstv.irpresstv.ir. From the large Sahelian outposts of Mali and Niger to coastal Senegal and Ivory Coast, the footprint of France’s once-formidable Operation Barkhane and related missions was nearly erased. Only two significant French deployments remained: about 1,500 troops in Djibouti (in the Horn of Africa) and a small force in Gabon, Central Africapresstv.ir. Those too faced uncertain futures as local sentiment grew impatient with any vestiges of foreign militarism. As a senior analyst Mucahid Durmaz observed, “Chad’s decision marks the final nail in the coffin of France’s post-colonial military dominance in the entire Sahel region”, reflecting a “wider structural transformation” in Africa’s engagement with Francevocesdelsur.prensa-latina.cuvocesdelsur.prensa-latina.cu. In plainer terms, France’s influence – political, military, economic – in its former African colonies has never been weaker than it is now.

What drove this sweeping change? Fundamentally, African populations and new leaders demanded sovereignty and dignity. Years of frustration had built up: French military interventions had not quelled the Islamist insurgencies plaguing the Sahel, economies remained tied to old colonial-era currencies (like the CFA franc), and political elites propped up by France were seen as corrupt and repressive. A younger generation of Africans, connected via social media, helped ignite mass protests with chants like “France dégage!” (“France get out!”). In 2025, these sentiments were translated into policy by governments – especially military juntas that took power in Mali (2021), Guinea (2021), Burkina Faso (2022), and Niger (2023). These juntas rode populist anger to justify ejecting ambassadors and troops of the former colonial power. Even in more democratic states like Senegal and Ivory Coast, incumbent leaders pivoted to anti-French positions to maintain legitimacy in the face of public pressure and opposition gainsaljazeera.comaljazeera.com. Ivory Coast’s President Alassane Ouattara, long regarded as Paris-friendly, surprised many by announcing that French forces must withdraw because the Ivorian army is “now effective” and can handle security itselfaljazeera.comaljazeera.com. Analysts noted Ouattara likely also acted to steal the thunder of anti-French rivals ahead of elections, but whatever the motive, the outcome was clear – France was out.

The eviction of France also had an economic and symbolic dimension. Several countries moved to reclaim control over natural resources that had been dominated by French companies. Mali, for instance, revoked a French multinational’s gold mining license and invited firms from Russia and China instead. Niger, a major uranium producer, renegotiated terms with France’s Orano company amid accusations that France’s decades of mining amounted to “mass crimes” against the Nigerien peoplepresstv.irpresstv.ir. Such steps are part of a broader push to finally “decolonize” African economies – whether through establishing new currencies, diversifying trade partners, or asserting better terms for resource extraction.

The Pan-African sovereignty movement also manifested in greater cooperation among African nations themselves. Notably, the three Sahel countries under military rule – Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger – formed a defensive alliance (the Liptako-Gourma Charter) pledging mutual support against external aggression or internal destabilization. When ECOWAS (the West African regional bloc) – prodded by France and the U.S. – threatened military intervention to reverse Niger’s July 2023 coup, not only did Mali and Burkina warn they’d fight in Niger’s defense, but Nigeria’s public strongly opposed their own government’s participation. ECOWAS ultimately backed down from intervention, illustrating how Western influence via African proxies has waned. Meanwhile, the African Union showed new assertiveness on the global stage. In 2025, the African Union gained a seat at the G20 table (as a permanent member), a development championed by India and China to ensure Africa’s voice is heard in major economic decisions. African leaders used that platform to press for reforms in global finance and climate funding, often in concert with BRICS partners.

Indeed, Africa gravitated toward the multipolar ethos. Many African states deepened ties with China, Russia, Turkey, and others as alternatives to Western patrons. China is now the largest trading partner and investor for most of Africa, financing infrastructure without the political strings Western aid often carried. Russia has expanded security ties – the Wagner Group, though mired in controversy, provided training and support that some regimes found valuable after kicking out French forces. As one West African analyst put it, “They want to explore options with Russia, China, Turkey and other powers” because ties with France “have not benefited the population”vocesdelsur.prensa-latina.cuvocesdelsur.prensa-latina.cu. Even Middle Eastern players like the UAE stepped in – for example, reportedly offering Chad security aid after it expelled the French, showing that Africans are actively diversifying partnershipsvocesdelsur.prensa-latina.cu.

A palpable sense of Pan-Africanism also re-emerged. Across borders, Africans cheered each other’s moves to reclaim sovereignty. When Niger expelled the French ambassador and troops in 2023, supportive rallies were held in Mali and Burkina Faso. In 2025, as Ivory Coast joined the “French troops go home” club, many across Francophone Africa hailed it as a collective victory. Social media buzzed with slogans of African unity, and cultural exchanges (through music, film, and academic forums) stressed shared identity over colonial languages or divisions. The refrain “African solutions to African problems” gained substance: from mediating regional conflicts to joint military exercises like the “African Shield 2025” that brought together forces from 10 countries (with no Western advisers involved) for disaster response and counterterror drills.

Of course, challenges remain. The security vacuum left by departing foreign forces has in some places been filled by instability. The Sahel’s jihadist insurgencies did not disappear with France’s exit; in fact, extremist attacks rose in Mali and Burkina in 2025, testing the capacity of local armiesvocesdelsur.prensa-latina.cuvocesdelsur.prensa-latina.cu. Some critics argue that Russia or China could become new hegemons if Africa is not careful, swapping one dependency for another. But for many Africans, the immediate focus is on breaking the cycle of foreign domination. The symbolism of raising national flags over former foreign bases – as seen in Abidjan and N’Djamena – is powerful. It feeds a sense of pride and possibility: that African nations, by uniting and asserting themselves, can chart an independent course.

In summary, 2025 will be remembered as the year Africa’s post-colonial second independence truly accelerated. The strengthening of Pan-African sovereignty is evident in the way African states stood up to former metropoles, coordinated in multilateral forums, and amplified their collective voice for fairness in the international system. As Press TV noted, “the French withdrawal… reflects a broader shift in West Africa’s ties with Paris amid rising anti-French sentiment”, part of a continental trend of reclaiming agencypresstv.irpresstv.ir. In the larger multipolar narrative, Africa’s rise is essential: with 1.3 billion people and vast resources, the continent’s liberation from neo-colonial influence means a more balanced world. African nations are no longer content to be pawns in others’ games; they seek to be players in their own right. If this momentum holds, Africa’s renaissance will be a cornerstone of the emerging multipolar order – fulfilling the dreams of early pan-Africanists that a free, united Africa can stand equal among the world’s powers.

Conclusion: The New World Taking Shape

From the steppes of Ukraine to the streets of West Africa, the events of 2025 together paint a tableau of a world in transition. The unipolar moment of U.S. and Western primacy is fading, giving way to a multipolar order defined by a diverse set of powerful actors and regional blocs. This year, a resurgent Russia bluntly demonstrated that NATO’s will can be thwarted. An emboldened Iran and its allies showed that even a U.S.-backed regional hegemon like Israel could be held to account for its actions, at least in the court of global opinion. China and India underscored that economic and diplomatic leadership no longer emanates only from the West – the Global South is increasingly setting its own agenda. And across developing nations, from Latin America’s defiance of Washington’s interventions to Africa’s expulsion of European troops, there is a clear demand for sovereign equality and respect, not paternalism.

None of this is to romanticize the multipolar world as automatically peaceful or just. Indeed, 2025 also witnessed horrific bloodshed and new dangers. The collapse of old arrangements can breed instability, as seen in Syria’s turmoil after regime change or the security gaps in the Sahel after French withdrawals. Multipolarity is not a panacea; it means more centers of decision-making, which can complicate efforts to address global challenges like climate change or pandemics. But what is evident is that hegemony is being challenged on all fronts. Western powers, especially the United States and European Union, face a stark reckoning with their own shortcomings and overextensions. As even European leaders admitted, the West must adapt to a world where it “faces the risk of civilizational decline” if it fails to renew itselfglobaltimes.cn. The alternative – embracing true multilateral cooperation on the basis of mutual respect – is ironically what Western nations had long preached but not always practiced. Now, they are being held to those ideals by rising counterparts.

For the first time in generations, multiple civilizational poles – Eurasian, South Asian, Middle Eastern, African, Latin American – are asserting their interests in a way that constrains unilateral power. This “multipolar moment,” born through the trials and tragedies of 2025, could lead to a more balanced international system if managed wisely. It could force reforms in institutions like the UN Security Council and Bretton Woods financial system to be more inclusive. It could temper the impulse of any one nation to act as the world’s policeman, knowing that others can and will push back. Certainly, the Global South’s leadership, as seen in BRICS and other forums, is pushing for an order where development needs and historical justice take center stageglobaltimes.cnglobaltimes.cn.

The key moving forward will be whether major powers avoid turning multipolar competition into a zero-sum contest. The spirit of 2025’s resistance – whether Ukraine’s survival instinct, Gaza’s steadfastness, or Africa’s unity – was ultimately about dignity and equality. If that lesson is heeded, a multipolar world could be more equitable and stable than the unipolar or bipolar eras of the past. As of the end of 2025, at least, the world has unmistakably entered a new chapter: one in which Western hegemony is no longer taken for granted, and multiple voices now write the narrative of international relations. The birth of this multipolar order has been painful, but in the eyes of many nations long marginalized, it is the overdue “rebalancing…of the world based on mutual respect” that figures like Medvedev proclaimedgroups.google.comgroups.google.com. The task ahead will be turning that proclamation into a lived reality – forging a just peace in Ukraine, real freedom for Palestine, genuine partnership with Africa, and shared prosperity rather than new great-power rivalries. The story of 2025 shows both the promise and the peril on that path, and the world will be watching how these developments unfold in the years to come.

Sources: The analysis draws on diverse independent media reports and expert commentary, including Press TV (Iran) for on-the-ground perspectives in West Asia and Latin Americapresstv.irpresstv.ir, RT (Russia) for viewpoints on the Ukraine conflict and EU politicsgroups.google.comgroups.google.com, Global Times (China) for insights on multipolar trends and European challengesglobaltimes.cnglobaltimes.cn, as well as regional outlets like Al Mayadeen and Prensa Latina for Africa’s post-colonial developmentsvocesdelsur.prensa-latina.cupresstv.ir. These non-Western sources corroborate the major events and help illuminate the growing consensus in much of the world that 2025 marked a decisive break from Western-centric narratives toward a more multipolar reality.

The post 2025: The Birth of a Multipolar World Order appeared first on FREENET AFRICA.

This report examines the likelihood of a world war erupting soon (particularly in the next year), explores multiple viewpoints (Western and BRICS alike), draws historical analogies to past pre-war periods, and considers whether the world has passed the point of peace or if de-escalation is still achievable. The aim is to provide a comprehensive, balanced analysis of how close we truly are to World War III and what its outcomes might entail.

Escalating Conflicts: Flashpoints for a Global War

Multiple regional flashpoints today carry global significance. Any of these conflicts – or a combination of them – could spiral into a broader war involving the major powers. As one analysis bluntly put it, “any major war will almost certainly result from the tensions between five major players: Russia, China, North Korea, Iran and the United States”[1]. Below we examine the key theaters and how they interconnect:

The Ukraine–Russia War: Europe’s Powder Keg

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022 shattered decades of relative peace in Europe and raised the specter of direct NATO-Russia confrontation. Thus far, NATO countries have limited their involvement to arming and supporting Ukraine, but the risk of escalation is ever-present. Russian forces have periodically tested NATO’s resolve with incidents like drone incursions into Polish and Romanian territory and fighter jets violating Baltic airspace[2][3]. Each incident carries the danger of miscalculation – a Russian strike that accidentally hits a NATO member could trigger the Alliance’s mutual defense clause and spark direct conflict. Indeed, officials in frontline NATO states have warned that they are at their “closest to open conflict since the Second World War,” as Poland’s prime minister said after a series of airspace violations[4]. Western intelligence also believes Moscow is preparing for a wider war. In late 2024, the head of Germany’s BND intelligence service cautioned that “Russia is preparing for a war with the West”[5], indicating that NATO is laying contingency plans for scenarios ranging from an all-out shooting war to shadowy hybrid attacks. For many in Eastern Europe, Russian expansionism is not a distant hypothetical but a real, immediate threat[6].

Should Russia directly attack any NATO territory, it would force the alliance into all-out war, with Russia likely calling on its partners to join a global fight[7]. This is the nightmare scenario: NATO’s vast military (including the U.S.) clashing head-on with a nuclear-armed Russia. Analysts have voiced concern that the world could “sleepwalk its way into an engulfing conflict” if Kremlin aggression goes unchecked[8]. However, some experts believe Moscow might not launch a blatant invasion of NATO territory; instead, Russia could pursue ambiguous gray-zone actions intended to divide and weaken the Alliance[9]. Even so, with Russia ramping up production of long-range hypersonic missiles capable of reaching across Europe and the Western Hemisphere[10], the European theater remains extremely volatile. Eastern European nations are fortifying defenses and bracing for the worst, as evidenced by several Baltic states withdrawing from a landmine-ban treaty to remilitarize their borders[11]. In summary, the Ukraine war has already drawn in NATO indirectly, and any further escalation – deliberate or accidental – could light the fuse of a wider war.

Middle East Tinderbox: Israel, Iran and Regional Turmoil

The Middle East is another potential ignition point for global conflict. The region’s stability dramatically worsened after the outbreak of the Israel–Hamas war in October 2023, which saw Hamas’s surprise attack and a major Israeli military response in Gaza. That war’s reverberations have been felt across the region: skirmishes with Hezbollah in Lebanon, unrest in the West Bank, and heightened tensions involving Iran. For a tense period in mid-2024, it appeared a direct Israel–Iran war was about to erupt – a conflict that could easily drag in the world’s great powers. As one account described, “for a few days over the summer it looked as though the war between Israel and Iran would explode into an all-out regional conflict, dragging in the US and Western allies on one side, and potentially Russia and China on the other.”[12] Both Washington and Tehran seemingly came to the brink: reports indicate the United States even launched limited airstrikes on Iranian nuclear facilities amid that crisis, before all sides backed down within about 24 hours[13]. This close call underscores how rapidly a regional showdown — in this case between Israel and Iran — could escalate into a superpower standoff.

Several factors continue to fuel Middle Eastern volatility. Iran’s nuclear program remains a flashpoint: Tehran’s efforts to enrich uranium have brought it closer to a nuclear weapons capability, something Israel has vowed to prevent at all costs. After the 2023 Hamas–Israel war and the weakening of Iran’s proxy forces like Hezbollah (reportedly even the Assad regime in Syria fell amid the chaos, according to some analyses)[14], hardliners in Tehran have even more incentive to seek a nuclear deterrent. Iran still holds an estimated 440 kg of highly-enriched uranium, and despite covert attacks and sanctions aimed at slowing its progress, the program is seen as a growing threat[15][16]. As one researcher observed, “it all adds up to quite a dangerous situation… their capacity has been marginally degraded, but the incentives for Iran to go nuclear have gone through the roof.”[15] If Iran were to weaponize its nuclear program or if Israel were to strike preemptively, a wider war could ensue. In such a scenario, the U.S. would likely back Israel while Russia (which has ties to Iran and Syria) and China (which opposes Western interventionism) could support Iran diplomatically or even militarily, aligning along geopolitical fault lines[12].

At the same time, Israel’s own policies are a source of tension. Its government’s expansion of settlements and talk of annexing parts of the occupied West Bank have angered not just Palestinians but also sparked international backlash. In fact, numerous countries – including some Western allies like France, the UK, Canada, and Australia – have moved toward formally recognizing Palestinian statehood, especially in the aftermath of the Gaza war[17]. Israel has reacted with alarm to these recognitions, and there are fears it might retaliate by unilaterally annexing more West Bank territory[17]. Such a move would inflame the Arab world and could provoke another violent uprising or even intervention by countries like Iran. The U.S. finds itself in a delicate position: while it staunchly defends Israel’s security, it also wants to prevent a broader regional war that could draw in American forces. For now, cooler heads have prevailed – for instance, Israel, Iran and the U.S. all ultimately pulled back from the brink during that scare in 2024[13]. But the Middle East remains on a knife’s edge. Any spark – a Hezbollah missile barrage, an Iranian nuclear breakout, or an Israeli annexation attempt – could set off a chain reaction involving outside powers.

Indo-Pacific Tensions: U.S.–China Rivalry and East Asian Flashpoints

Perhaps the most significant potential trigger of a world war lies in East Asia, where a rising superpower (China) is increasingly at odds with the established one (the United States). Many analysts have long assumed that if World War III were to occur, it might begin in the Indo-Pacific region[18]. The core issue is Taiwan – the self-governing island that Beijing claims as part of Chinese territory, but which enjoys de facto independence with U.S. support. China’s President Xi Jinping has made reunification with Taiwan a central goal, and he has not renounced the use of force to achieve it. In recent years, China’s stance toward Taiwan has grown markedly more aggressive: the Chinese military (PLA) routinely conducts large-scale air and naval drills around the island as rehearsals for a potential invasion or blockade[19]. In one instance, live-fire exercises in the Taiwan Strait were explicitly described as a “dress rehearsal for a possible real blockade… in the future”[20]. Beijing has also tested new amphibious assault ships and even unveiled technology like deep-sea cable cutters (to sever internet links) in preparation for possible conflict[21]. These actions signal that China is actively preparing for war over Taiwan, as Taiwan’s own defense officials have warned[22][23]. In a September 2025 speech in Washington, a senior Taiwanese minister stated plainly: “China is preparing for war to take Taiwan… Beijing has been actively preparing for war,” pointing to stepped-up Chinese military activity near the island[22][23]. He cautioned that if Taiwan fell to a Chinese invasion, it would trigger a “domino effect” undermining regional security and directly threatening the U.S. [22][24]. American leaders have likewise identified a potential Chinese move on Taiwan as one of the gravest looming threats, with some intelligence estimates suggesting Beijing wants the capability to seize Taiwan by 2027 – the 100th anniversary of the PLA[25].

The United States has signaled it would not abandon Taiwan. Washington has been increasing military aid and coordination with Taipei, and U.S. officials frequently reiterate that any Chinese attack would be met with a response. This mutual posturing creates a real risk of direct superpower war. A Chinese attempt to forcibly reunify Taiwan would almost certainly draw in the U.S. and possibly U.S. allies like Japan, Australia, and others in Asia-Pacific – an event that would “shake the foundations of the world as we know it and could well trigger a Third World War”[26]. Chinese leaders are aware of this risk: invading Taiwan means “direct war with the US,” as even Chinese strategists acknowledge[27]. This acts as a deterrent, but also motivates Beijing to rapidly build up its military (including expanding its nuclear arsenal) to tilt the balance. Analysts note that China is on track to field 600+ nuclear warheads in coming years and, together with Russia, could potentially amass more nukes than the United States – a development that complicates deterrence calculations for Washington[28]. Meanwhile, China portrays U.S. involvement as the provocative factor. Chinese officials regularly warn Washington “not to play with fire” by arming or encouraging Taiwan’s independence[29]. From Beijing’s perspective, America’s network of alliances in Asia (and frequent naval patrols in the Taiwan Strait) amount to encirclement, and BRICS partners like Russia often echo the view that U.S. “hegemony” is the source of instability[30].

Beyond Taiwan, East Asia has other flashpoints that could compound a conflict. North Korea, a close partner of China (and Russia), continues to develop nuclear weapons and ballistic missiles. Pyongyang’s dictator Kim Jong Un has modernized his arsenal and declared an end to hopes of peaceful reunification with South Korea[31]. In 2023–2024, North Korea repeatedly tested missiles (including potentially nuclear-capable ones) and even sent small contingents of troops to assist Russia in Ukraine[32][33]. The Korean Peninsula is thus a tinderbox: a North Korean attack on South Korea or Japan (both U.S.-allied) could instantly broaden any war. Western experts speculate that in a U.S.-China showdown, Beijing might encourage North Korea to open a second front. As one scenario suggests, China could prod Pyongyang into attacking southward “in order to expel U.S. troops [from the Korean Peninsula]. That would open a new front against the US so that China could more easily take Taiwan.”[34] In other words, a coordinated move by China and North Korea could stretch U.S. forces across two Asian wars simultaneously. This ominously mirrors the “axis” coordination seen in Europe during World War II, and indeed U.S. officials now openly talk about an emergent de facto alliance of Russia, China, Iran, and North Korea acting in concert[35][36]. All four have been cooperating in today’s conflicts – e.g. North Korean artillery and Iranian drones aid Russia in Ukraine, while China’s trade with Russia undermines Western sanctions[37][36]. In a future war, these states could form one camp, with NATO and Indo-Pacific U.S. allies forming the opposing camp. The stage would be set for a true world war, spanning multiple theaters from Eastern Europe to the Middle East to the Pacific.

How Likely Is World War III in the Near Future?

With so many hotspots and dire warnings, is a global war actually likely to erupt in the next year? While the risk is real and growing, most analysts still consider a full-scale World War III (involving direct great-power clashes) to be improbable in the very immediate term, though not impossible. The consensus is that we are in a period of heightened danger, even if world war is not yet inevitable. A recent survey of hundreds of global strategists found that 40% expect a world war (a multifront great-power conflict) to occur by 2035[38]. Notably, historian Philip Zelikow estimated a “20 to 30 percent” probability of “worldwide warfare” breaking out “within the next one to three years”, warning that the world is entering a “period of maximum danger”[39]. These are sobering odds – effectively a coin flip over the next decade, and a non-trivial chance in the next few years. Even some prominent investors and thinkers outside the security field have sounded alarms: Billionaire Ray Dalio recently wrote that the odds of the current “contained” conflicts escalating into a “hot world war” involving major powers have risen to ~50%, up from 35% two years earlier[40]. In his words, it’s now “a coin toss” whether we transition from isolated wars (Ukraine, Israel-Hamas, etc.) into a broader global war that draws in the U.S. and China[41]. He argued in late 2023 that the Israel-Gaza war and Russia-Ukraine war are likely to be “brutal until the end” and “more likely to spread than subside”, potentially leading to “a much more horrific hot world war” if other major countries become involved[42].

That said, a world war is not a foregone conclusion and there are significant constraints on its outbreak in the near term. For one, all the major powers know that a direct war carries incalculable risks, foremost among them nuclear annihilation. The principle of nuclear deterrence has, since 1945, prevented the superpowers from fighting each other outright. Even as tensions run high, leaders in Washington, Moscow, and Beijing have strong incentives to avoid crossing the threshold into open conflict that could escalate to strategic nuclear exchange. This “balance of terror” continues to act as a moderating force. For example, Western nations have carefully calibrated their support to Ukraine – providing weapons to Kyiv but stopping short of deploying NATO troops – precisely to avoid a direct NATO-Russia shooting war. Similarly, China and the U.S. have kept channels of communication open and recently resumed high-level military dialogues to reduce the chance of accidents in the South China Sea or Taiwan Strait sparking combat. Restraint and diplomacy still have a role: despite heated rhetoric, Beijing has not moved to attack Taiwan yet, and U.S. and Chinese officials periodically meet to manage the rivalry. In the Middle East, backdoor negotiations (often via third parties) have so far prevented an Israel-Iran missile exchange. And in Europe, Russia has limited its war to Ukraine, likely aware that attacking NATO would be suicidal. All these factors suggest that while war could erupt (especially via miscalculation or unintended escalation), there remains a plausible path in which the next year sees continued brinkmanship and proxy conflicts without an overt World War.

It’s also important to note that some observers believe World War III may have effectively “already begun,” but in a form distinct from past world wars. They argue that we are in a state of hybrid global conflict that hasn’t yet gone nuclear or fully mobilized. In this view, the Russia-Ukraine war, China’s military posturing, cyber warfare, economic sanctions, and clashes in places like Africa are all part of a brewing world war that is unfolding “by a thousand cuts”. National security expert Mark Toth and former intelligence officer Jonathan Sweet, for instance, contend that the third world war is already underway – not with mushroom clouds and massed armies, but with subtler means[43]. “This third global conflagration doesn’t look or feel like what Hollywood envisioned… no mushroom clouds or apocalyptic wastelands. Rather, it is war by a thousand cuts, conducted across multi-regional and multi-domain battlefields,” they told the Daily Mail[43]. In their analysis, Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine marked the “early stages” of this conflict[44]. Since then, the war has expanded into cyberspace (with massive hacking and disinformation campaigns), outer space (ASAT weapons tests), and proxy battles in developing countries[45]. Under this paradigm, the world may already be fighting World War III in incremental ways, and the question is whether it erupts into the traditional full-scale war that people recognize. While not everyone agrees with this interpretation, it underscores the reality that the international order is at its most unstable point in decades. Even if a formal world war is not “declared” in the next year, the conflicts and rivalries at play are global in scope and could at any moment intensify.

In summary, the next 12 months will likely see continued instability and localized wars rather than an immediate leap to World War III – but the margin for error is thin. The probability of world war in any given year is difficult to quantify (some put it in the single digits percentage-wise), yet it is clearly higher now than it was a decade ago, and it continues to rise. We are essentially in a race between escalation and diplomacy: either the conflicts will be managed (or frozen) to buy time for longer-term solutions, or one of these flashpoints will escalate beyond control. The consensus among cautious experts is that outright world war is not inevitable in the very near term – but if current trends continue unchecked, the risk in the medium term (next 2–5 years and beyond) is uncomfortably high[39].

Western vs. BRICS Perspectives: Who’s to Blame, and What’s at Stake?

Interpretations of these mounting war risks vary dramatically between the Western world and the BRICS bloc (Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa) and its sympathizers. To present a balanced view, it’s crucial to understand each side’s narrative:

• Western Perspective: From the viewpoint of the United States and its NATO/allied partners, the threat of a world war stems largely from the aggressive actions of authoritarian powers – namely Russia’s expansionism in Europe and China’s militarism in Asia. Western leaders argue that the post-World War II “rules-based international order” is under assault by nations who seek to redraw borders by force or undermine sovereign nations’ rights. For example, the U.S. and European governments see Russia’s invasion of Ukraine as an unprovoked act of aggression violating international law. In their eyes, Moscow is solely responsible for the war, and Western military aid to Ukraine is a justified effort to stop Russian imperial ambitions. Analogies are often drawn to the 1930s: some Western officials compare Putin’s territorial grabs to Hitler’s annexations, warning against “appeasement” and insisting that failing to stop Russia in Ukraine will only embolden it to threaten other countries. This is why NATO’s eastern members are so on edge – a sentiment encapsulated by those Baltic and Polish warnings of being closer to war than at any time since 1945[4]. Western intelligence also frequently highlights hostile intent from the Russian side; recall the German intelligence chief’s stark warning that Russia appears to be gearing up for possible war against the West[5]. Similarly, China is viewed warily by the West. American and European officials often cite Chinese belligerence – whether it’s military build-ups near Taiwan, island-building in the South China Sea, or combative “wolf warrior” diplomacy – as evidence that Beijing is trying to subvert the status quo. The Western narrative frames the U.S.-China rivalry as a contest between democracy and authoritarianism, with Taiwan’s freedom and the security of the Pacific at stake. U.S. military leaders have openly said they must be ready to defend Taiwan if China attacks, and NATO’s latest strategy documents even mention managing the “systemic challenge” posed by China. In short, the West tends to blame the would-be aggressors (Russia, China, Iran, North Korea) for pushing the world toward war. The preferred Western solution is strength and deterrence: bolster alliances, arm the threatened democracies (Ukraine, Taiwan, Israel), and make clear that any attack on allies will be met with overwhelming force. The hope is that robust deterrence will prevent World War III by persuading adversaries they cannot win one. Western powers also emphasize international law and often seek diplomatic off-ramps, but not at the expense of what they consider core principles (like a country’s right to self-determination or freedom of navigation). From this angle, appeasement equals risk, whereas collective security and resolve offer the best chance to keep the peace.
• BRICS (Russia/China & partners) Perspective: Leading voices in Moscow, Beijing, and other BRICS capitals tell a very different story – one where the West is the instigator of global instability. Russian and Chinese leaders accuse the U.S. and NATO of hegemonic, expansionist behavior that has cornered them into reacting. For instance, President Putin portrays the Ukraine war not as an invasion but as a defensive response to NATO’s eastward expansion and Western meddling in Russia’s traditional sphere. He frequently asserts a deep historical unity between Russians and Ukrainians (infamously claiming “we are one people”), implying Moscow is reclaiming what it views as its own[46]. From the Kremlin’s perspective, NATO’s arming of Ukraine proves that Russia is really fighting “the whole Western alliance” in Ukraine. Indeed, Russian officials often refer to the conflict as “Russia’s war against the West”. Putin also couches his worldview in terms of a changing global order: he criticizes Western dominance and points to the rising economic and political clout of BRICS as “inevitable” trends reshaping power balances[30]. In a June 2025 forum, Putin warned that if regional conflicts (like Ukraine and Middle East tensions) remain unresolved, it may lead to a global war, and he insisted those conflicts “need serious attention and peaceful solutions”[47]. However, he squarely blamed the West for many of those conflicts and touted Russia and China as champions of a “more balanced” world order replacing Western unilateralism[30][48]. This rhetoric resonates with many in the Global South and within BRICS nations, who feel Western countries have long dictated terms in international affairs.

China, for its part, views U.S. actions in Asia as provocative. Beijing sees American military alliances in its neighborhood (Japan, South Korea, Australia, plus unofficial ties with Taiwan) as an attempt to contain China’s rise – analogous, Chinese officials sometimes say, to how encirclement strategies preceded past great-power wars. The Chinese government insists that Taiwan is an internal matter and that it seeks peaceful reunification, but it also vows to “take all necessary measures” to prevent Taiwan’s permanent separation or foreign interference[29]. When U.S. warships sail through the Taiwan Strait or sell arms to Taipei, China frames it as dangerous meddling that could trigger war. In Beijing’s narrative, the U.S. is “playing with fire” and creating the crisis, whereas China is simply responding to defend its sovereignty. Similar logic applies to the South China Sea, where China’s claims and militarization are, in their view, justified by history – and it’s the U.S. Navy patrols asserting freedom of navigation that raise war risks. Broadly, BRICS countries emphasize multipolarity: they argue that the era of undisputed Western (American) dominance is ending, and a new order where multiple powers (including China, India, Russia, etc.) have a say must emerge. They often cite the growing share of global GDP accounted for by BRICS and the expanding membership of BRICS and the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation as evidence that the West can no longer call all the shots[30][48]. From this view, conflicts like Ukraine and the Israel-Palestine issue are symptoms of Western refusal to accommodate other powers’ interests. Russian and Chinese officials routinely accuse the West of hypocrisy – for example, intervening militarily around the world when it suits them (Iraq, Libya, Kosovo) but condemning Russia’s intervention; or upholding Israel’s security while ignoring Palestinian rights. Such grievances feed a narrative that a “more balanced” global order is needed to secure peace[30]. Interestingly, leaders like Putin and Xi often stop short of advocating a world war – rather, they cast themselves as trying to prevent one by correcting Western misbehavior. In practice, however, their calls for a new order sometimes serve to justify aligning together against the West. Moscow and Beijing have drawn closer in diplomatic and military cooperation, presenting a united front against Western sanctions and pressures. They insist they are not forming a hostile bloc, but Western analysts do see an “axis” of sorts emerging[35]. Other BRICS members like India and Brazil take more nuanced stances – they generally don’t want a world war and prefer diplomacy, but they also voice frustration at Western dominance and have been reluctant to sever ties with Russia or China. India, for example, continues to buy Russian oil and weapons and has not joined Western sanctions on Russia, emphasizing a neutral approach and urging dialogue in Ukraine. Yet India also has border conflicts with China and is part of the Quad with the U.S., so its loyalties in a world war scenario might be split (analysts predict India would try to stay non-committal in a WW3 situation)[49]. This underscores that “West vs BRICS” is not black-and-white – there are shades of gray. Still, for the purpose of gauging war sentiment: Western opinion sees authoritarian aggression as the chief danger, whereas the BRICS side sees Western hegemonism as the root cause of potential world war.

In a sense, both perspectives agree on one thing: the current trajectory is perilous. But they disagree on how we got here and how to avoid disaster. The West calls for upholding international norms and deterring aggressors; the BRICS call for respecting new power realities and addressing what they view as Western-caused grievances. A balanced assessment must acknowledge that each side fears the other. NATO countries fear an emboldened Russia or China will upend the peace by force; Russia/China fear the U.S.-led bloc is trying to thwart their security and rise, possibly by force. This mutual distrust is itself reminiscent of past pre-war rivalries and makes resolving crises much harder.

Historical Analogies and Lessons

History does not repeat exactly, but it rhymes. Many observers draw analogies between today’s geopolitical tensions and those in eras that preceded major wars. Such analogies can be illuminating – or cautionary – as we seek to understand if World War III is looming. Here are a few pertinent historical parallels:

• “Sleepwalking” into World War I (1914): The situation in 1914 is often invoked when discussing how a world war can start almost inadvertently. Prior to WWI, Europe was a multipolar powder keg of rising and declining empires entangled in alliances. A localized event – the assassination of Archduke Ferdinand in the Balkans – triggered a chain reaction of mobilizations due to treaty obligations and strategic miscalculations. Leaders on all sides believed war could be controlled or avoided even as they took aggressive postures, but ultimately they “sleepwalked” into a catastrophic global conflict. Similarly, today we see a multipolar world with several great powers (U.S., China, Russia, etc.) and a web of alliances (NATO, security pacts in Asia) that could draw many nations into war if a single spark is not contained. It’s no coincidence that analysts warn we may “sleepwalk… into an engulfing conflict” again[8]. Like 1914, none of the major powers openly desires a world war, yet each is ramping up militarily and might feel compelled to respond to a provocation against an ally or proxy. The lesson from 1914 is the danger of overconfidence and rigid alliance commitments – something policymakers today are keenly aware of when managing, for instance, the NATO commitment to defend the Baltics if attacked. Avoiding a repeat may require flexibility, communication, and willingness to de-escalate crises before they spiral. The WWI analogy is a stark reminder that world wars can start even when no one initially intends them, due to miscalculation and the momentum of events.
• Appeasement and World War II (1930s): On the other hand, the lead-up to World War II offers lessons about the cost of failing to confront expansionism early. In the 1930s, aggressive powers (Nazi Germany, Fascist Italy, Imperial Japan) repeatedly violated treaties and annexed territory. The Western democracies often responded weakly or tried to appease these regimes (e.g. Munich Agreement of 1938, yielding the Sudetenland to Hitler) in hopes of preserving peace. The result was that the aggressors became emboldened, seeing appeasement as a green light, and ultimately launched full-scale war that became global. Many in the West apply this analogy to today’s situations: for example, some compare Putin’s annexation of Crimea (2014) and invasion of Ukraine (2022) to Hitler’s land grabs, arguing that yielding territory or making concessions will only encourage more aggression. This viewpoint bolsters the case for firm resistance now – supplying Ukraine, drawing red lines around Taiwan, etc., to show that free nations will fight and thus deter a larger war. Critics, however, note a key difference: unlike the 1930s, today’s potential aggressors wield nuclear weapons, making direct confrontation far more dangerous. Still, the WWII analogy influences decision-makers: the fear of being seen as Chamberlain (who appeased Hitler) weighs on leaders like those in Washington or London when considering how strongly to respond to Russia or other threats. Conversely, Russia sometimes flips this analogy on its head – Putin’s propaganda absurdly labels Ukraine’s government as “Nazis” and casts Russia’s war as a righteous fight akin to WWII. While that narrative is widely rejected outside Russia, it underscores how historical memory (the Great Patriotic War in Russia’s case) is used to justify current policies. The true lesson of WWII might be that unchecked expansionism leads to bigger wars, but also that once total war starts, it is unimaginably destructive – especially now that nukes exist.
• Cold War and the Avoidance of World War III (1947–1991): The decades-long Cold War between the U.S.-led bloc and the Soviet-led bloc was in essence a world war that did not happen – or that was fought indirectly. Both superpowers had diametrically opposed ideologies and engaged in intense arms races and proxy wars, yet they scrupulously avoided direct clashes. This was largely due to the nuclear deterrent (Mutual Assured Destruction) and carefully managed diplomacy (hotlines, arms control treaties like SALT, INF, etc.). Some see today’s climate as a Second Cold War, with the U.S. and its allies on one side and a loose China-Russia partnership on the other. If so, history suggests two paths: a prolonged cold standoff with occasional proxy conflicts but no world war (the better outcome), or a failure of deterrence leading to a hot war (the worst outcome). The Cuban Missile Crisis (1962) is a favorite analogy for the brinksmanship over Taiwan or Ukraine – a reminder of how close we came to WWIII and how effective communication and compromise (Kennedy and Khrushchev’s secret deal) pulled us back. Today, ensuring robust communication channels – e.g. between U.S. and Chinese militaries, or the U.S. and Russia – is likewise critical to defuse potentially catastrophic incidents (like an air collision or naval incident in disputed waters). The Cold War also teaches the value of proxy conflicts as both a risk and a safety valve: wars like Korea and Vietnam were devastating but world war was avoided because the superpowers limited their direct involvement. Ukraine resembles a proxy war in that NATO is assisting one side while Russia avoids attacking NATO directly. This might contain the conflict – but as history warns, proxy wars can also escalate or expand if mismanaged. Ultimately, the Cold War ended peacefully through negotiation and the internal collapse of one side; it shows that patient containment and vigilance can succeed without global Armageddon, albeit after many tense decades. Policymakers hoping to avoid World War III may well be trying to emulate the cold peace model rather than the hot war model.
• Thucydides Trap (Ancient Greece): A frequently cited historical concept (though not without critics) is the Thucydides Trap, referring to the ancient rivalry between Sparta (the established power) and Athens (the rising power) that led to the Peloponnesian War. Historian Thucydides wrote that “it was the rise of Athens and the fear that this instilled in Sparta that made war inevitable.” By analogy, some fear that China’s rise and the fear it creates in the U.S. could similarly make a U.S.-China war “inevitable”. While inevitability is debated, we do see a classical security dilemma: each side’s defensive moves look offensive to the other (e.g., U.S. alliances vs. Chinese military expansion), leading to escalation. Avoiding this trap will require deliberate efforts by both Washington and Beijing to find a modus vivendi – much as Britain and the U.S. peacefully accommodated their power transition in the early 20th century, breaking the usual pattern of great-power war. The historical analogies of rising vs. ruling powers (like Germany vs. Britain pre-WWI as well) loom large in strategists’ minds and underline the importance of managing great-power competition so that it doesn’t erupt in conflict.

In applying historical lessons, one must be careful – no analogy is perfect. However, they collectively teach us that wars often seem unlikely until they suddenly happen, that balancing deterrence with diplomacy is vital, and that recognizing the perspectives and fears of all sides can sometimes avert fatal misunderstandings. History is replete with missed chances at peace and also a few extraordinary successes (as in 1962). The world today stands at a similar crossroads, and the awareness of history could be what helps current leaders navigate away from a repeat of 1914 or 1939.

At the Crossroads: Is Peace Still Possible or Have We Passed the Point of No Return?

With tensions so high, a critical question arises: Have we passed the point of “Peace,” or can escalation be halted? Some commentators grimly suggest that the world has already slid too far toward conflict – that the relative peace of the post-Cold War era is over, and an era of inevitable confrontation is upon us. Indeed, by many measures the world is less peaceful today than at any time since the Cold War: a major land war is raging in Europe, great-power military spending is surging, and international arms control regimes (like nuclear treaties) have frayed. However, acknowledging that peace is under severe strain is not the same as declaring it lost for good. De-escalation remains possible – and extremely necessary – to avoid crossing the threshold into world war.

On one hand, pessimists argue that key actors are no longer interested in compromise, making war only a matter of time. They point to rhetoric like that of Ray Dalio, who noted current conflicts seem more likely to widen than to resolve peacefully[42]. They also observe that diplomatic efforts have so far failed to resolve any of the major crises: negotiations between Russia and Ukraine have stalled or collapsed, Israeli-Palestinian peace prospects look dimmer than ever, and U.S.-China talks have yet to produce any agreement on Taiwan or the South China Sea. In this gloomy view, humanity may have crossed a Rubicon where each side is doubling down on military readiness, and “peace” as we knew it – the absence of great-power war – might be a thing of the past. The world could be likened to the late 1930s or the early Cold War 1950s, when confrontation became the new normal. If that is the case, the best we might hope for is a controlled standoff (a cold war) rather than a hot war, but even that standoff would be precarious and punctuated by proxy fights. Already, as noted, some see a form of World War III unfolding in slow motion via hybrid warfare[50][43]. Under this paradigm, true peace (where major powers genuinely trust each other and disarm) is out of reach for the foreseeable future.

On the other hand, there is a more optimistic (or at least pragmatic) camp which believes that de-escalation and diplomacy can still prevent doom. History offers examples of seemingly irreversible paths to war being turned around at the 11th hour. Even in our current conflicts, there have been moments of restraint that show war is not inevitable. For instance, despite extreme rhetoric, neither Russia nor NATO has deliberately expanded the Ukraine war beyond Ukraine’s borders – an indicator that both sides, for now, prefer to contain the fighting. The grain export deals in the Black Sea (when they were in effect) and periodic prisoner exchanges between Russia and the West showed that dialogue is possible even amid war. In the Middle East, as furious as Israel and Iran are at each other, both have avoided direct warfare for decades, often thanks to behind-the-scenes mediation (Oman, for example, has brokered messages between Tehran and Washington). As recently as 2015, major powers including the U.S. and Russia collectively negotiated the Iran nuclear deal (JCPOA) – proof that diplomatic solutions can be found for thorny issues when there is political will. Regarding the U.S.-China rivalry, there have been efforts to establish “guardrails,” such as the Biden-Xi summits and agreements to maintain communication hotlines. Those initiatives are aimed exactly at preventing accidental war. It’s worth remembering that domestic pressures in many countries also favor avoiding war: for example, American public opinion, scarred by long wars in Iraq/Afghanistan, is wary of new entanglements; Chinese economic ambitions are undermined by war disruptions, incentivizing Beijing to keep stability; European economies likewise desperately want to avert a wider war. These moderating forces suggest that rational self-interest could yet pull us back from the brink.

One potential path forward is renewed arms control and risk-reduction talks. Even during the Cold War’s darkest days, Washington and Moscow worked out agreements to limit nuclear weapons and manage incidents (e.g. the 1972 Incidents at Sea agreement to avoid naval collisions). In today’s context, something similar between the U.S. and China – perhaps an understanding on certain red lines around Taiwan or a mechanism to de-conflict military operations in the Western Pacific – could reduce the chance of a spark. In Europe, while formal treaties with Russia have faltered (Russia suspended the New START nuclear treaty, for instance), there are calls to eventually negotiate a settlement in Ukraine that could include security guarantees to both Ukraine and Russia. Such an outcome may seem distant now, but wars do end at the negotiating table eventually, and planning for a post-war security architecture could prevent the next war. Another hopeful sign is the involvement of third-party mediators. Countries like Turkey, India, Brazil, and South Africa (the latter three are in BRICS but also maintain ties to the West) have at various times offered to mediate the Ukraine conflict or dialogues between the U.S. and its rivals. While none of these initiatives have borne fruit yet, they could gain traction if stalemates on the battlefield make the combatants more receptive to talks. The recent Saudi-Iran rapprochement (brokered by China) shows that even long-time foes can strike a deal under the right circumstances – a reminder that surprises can happen in international diplomacy.

In weighing whether we’ve passed the point of peace, one must define “peace.” If we mean a return to the relatively harmonious international relations of the 1990s, then yes, that era appears over – the world has undeniably entered a more adversarial phase. But if “peace” means simply avoiding another world war, then it has not yet slipped out of our grasp. The coming year and beyond will be critical. As one expert panel found, about 60% of global strategists still believed the world in ten years could be as good as or better than today, while 40% feared it would be worse[51]. That indicates a substantial belief that disaster is not preordained. Ultimately, the fate of peace may rest on choices not yet made: whether leaders choose to dial down the rhetoric, engage in serious negotiations, and address the legitimate security concerns of all sides – or whether they continue on the collision course, banking on the hope that the other side blinks first.

Conclusion – A Fragile Balance: We stand at a fateful juncture. The likelihood of World War III in the next year remains low in absolute terms, but it is higher now than at any point in recent memory and rising with each uncontrolled crisis. A blend of flashpoints – in Eastern Europe, the Middle East, and East Asia – have created a global tinderbox. Should these conflicts entwine or erupt simultaneously, a third world war could indeed materialize, with devastating outcomes: tens of millions of lives at risk, economies shattered, and even nuclear Armageddon if escalation runs away. Both Western and BRICS viewpoints highlight valid fears and grievances, yet if each side pursues absolute victory or dominance, all may lose. Historical analogies to 1914 and 1939 sound alarms about miscalculation and appeasement, while the Cold War offers lessons in crisis management that are urgently needed now. We have not necessarily passed the final point of no return – but we are uncomfortably close to it. De-escalation is possible through determined diplomacy, mutual compromise, and building new security arrangements that acknowledge the interests of all major powers. The coming months will test whether leaders can step back from the brink. In essence, the world is teetering between two futures: one in which it sleepwalks into an abyss of world war, and another in which it awakens to the peril and pulls back. For the sake of humanity, the latter path must prevail.

Sources:

• The Week UK – “How close are we to World War Three?” (Sept 2025)[7][8][12][18][26][34]
• Atlantic Council – Welcome to 2035: Global Foresight Survey (Feb 2025)[39][38]
• The Economic Times (India) – Putin’s SPIEF Forum remarks (June 2025)[47][30][48]
• Reuters – Taiwan Affairs Minister Chiu Chui-cheng speech (Sept 2025)[22][23]
• Newsweek – “What Would World War III Look Like?” (Dec 2024)[1][35][36]
• The Economic Times – Mark Toth & Jonathan Sweet on “WW3 already here” (Dec 2024)[43][44]
• Business Insider – Ray Dalio “50% chance of world war” comments (Oct 2023)[41][40][42]

[1] [5] [35] [36] [37] [49] What would World War III look like? – Newsweek

[2] [3] [4] [6] [7] [8] [9] [10] [11] [12] [13] [14] [15] [16] [17] [18] [19] [20] [21] [25] [26] [27] [28] [31] [32] [33] [34] Is World War Three coming? What countries will be involved? | The Week

[22] [23] [24] [29] In US, Taiwan minister warns of ‘domino effect’ if China takes island | Reuters

[30] [46] [47] [48] Putin warns about World War III, points to war with Ukraine, Israel-Iran conflict in Middle East – The Economic Times

[38] [39] [51] Welcome to 2035: What the world could look like in ten years, according to more than 350 experts – Atlantic Council

[40] [41] [42] Ray Dalio Sees 50% Chance of World War As Israel-Hamas Conflict Rages – Business Insider

[43] [44] [45] [50] World War 3 news: “World War 3 is already here”: No mushroom clouds, but here’s when it really began – The Economic Times

The post Global Flashpoints & the Imminent Threat of World War III appeared first on FREENET AFRICA.

“This wasn’t about uranium. It was about the petrodollar,” she declares.

Speaking in the aftermath of canceled travel plans to Tehran—where she was scheduled to report on the DeBlock blockchain conference—Anastacia’s commentary blends personal experience with geopolitical analysis. Her central claim: the strikes on Iran’s Natanz enrichment facility were designed to derail Iran’s integration into BRICS, the growing economic bloc that now includes several of the world’s top energy exporters.

According to Anastacia, Iran’s 2024 accession to BRICS fundamentally altered global energy politics. With 9.5% of the world’s oil and 12% of its gas reserves, Iran represents not only a key supplier but also a symbolic pillar of non-Western cooperation. In her view, the expanded BRICS threatens the 50-year-old petrodollar system by encouraging energy trade outside the U.S. dollar—a move she believes Western powers will not tolerate.

“When over half the world starts trading outside the dollar,” she explains, “Washington’s sanctions become worthless paper.”

Anastacia connects the military strike with broader strategy. Referencing reports by journalist Pepe Escobar and public remarks by Donald Trump, she suggests U.S. and Israeli coordination intended to disrupt Iran’s role in Eurasian integration. She points to the International North-South Transport Corridor and BRICS energy initiatives like the proposed Iran-Russia gas hub as examples of infrastructure threatening Western control.

The podcast also questions the neutrality of international institutions. Anastacia claims IAEA inspections were “intelligence missions” that enabled Israeli precision strikes. Following the attacks, Iran announced it would no longer cooperate with IAEA nuclear oversight, a move she frames as proof of betrayal rather than aggression.

Throughout, Anastacia casts Iran not as an aggressor but as a keystone in a rising multipolar order. She suggests that Western fears stem less from nuclear development and more from Iran’s ability to anchor a new global economic model, one outside the reach of Western banking and military power.

“This is pattern recognition, not coincidence,” she argues, referencing a history of Western actions including the U.S. assassination of General Qassem Soleimani.

The podcast also critiques the structural weaknesses of BRICS, especially its lack of military coordination. In Anastacia’s words, BRICS must evolve from a “liquid organization” to a structured alliance capable of deterring aggression—or risk being dismantled, member by member.

She warns that without such change, “the West will pick them off one by one.”

The energy data shared paints a picture of long-term transformation. BRICS nations now supply 36.4% of global primary energy, a figure expected to reach 45% by 2040. Projects like the Markan gas hub and Turkmenistan swap routes, she says, represent a non-Western energy framework entirely beyond U.S. and EU control.

In this context, the Israeli strikes appear, in Anastacia’s framing, not as a tactical maneuver against nuclear proliferation but as a last-ditch effort to preserve a dying unipolar world.

“By attacking a BRICS member,” she concludes, “the West may have just accelerated the very multipolarity they sought to prevent.”

While her views challenge conventional media narratives, Anastacia is careful to root her claims in data and named sources. Still, she admits the stakes are monumental: If Russia and China choose not to support Iran, BRICS may falter. If they do, “we are looking at World War Three.”

The podcast ends not with reassurance, but with a stark warning.

“What happens next,” Anastacia says, “will determine whether we live in a world dominated by one superpower—or balanced among many.”

As the mainstream continues to debate nuclear enrichment and regional stability, Think BRICS offers an alternate lens: one that sees in Iran’s bombed infrastructure not the fear of weapons, but the fear of economic independence.

Source: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ni5q1YKOoJM

The post Israeli Strikes on Iran Targeted Global Economic Shift, Not Nuclear Threat appeared first on FREENET AFRICA.

In doing so, it is not only killing Palestinians now but threatening the possibility of a Palestinian future. A campaign that seeks to obliterate the future of a people is a genocide. Yet, despite these chilling statistics and an ICJ decision indicating its plausibility, there remains controversy as to this basic fact. Why? The most pervasive talking point is that Israel is not targeting Palestinians as a people, but only targeting Hamas.

Putting aside significant issues in law and fact that militate against this point, let me just share with you some statistics. What we know so far is that two percent of Palestinians in Gaza have been killed, including over 20,000 children buried and disappeared. The names of those under the age of one fill the the first fourteen pages of a 649 page document. So far, 1,200 entire families have been erased forever from the civil registry. Three months into the war, the UN humanitarian chief described Gaza as uninhabitable.

And since then, the situation has only gotten worse. This certainly exceeds Hamas militants. According to Israel, these horrifying numbers are irrelevant because they are the result, they say, of deliberate human shielding by Hamas. Again, putting aside significant issues of law and fact, let me just share with you the tactics of the army itself. It has sniped children twice above the waist.

It has used quadcopters to spray and kill children who are sprawled and injured on the floor. It has destroyed the largest in vitro fertility clinic, including 4,000 embryos. It has executed patients with their hands zip tied and thrown into mass graves. They have sexually assaulted detainees captured without charge or trial, bombed safe routes where Palestinians were ordered to flee, bombed safe zones where Palestinians were ordered to shelter, tortured medical doctors to death, destroyed more than half of Gaza’s desalination plants, undermining access to clean water, leveled all four major universities, attacked factories, libraries, bakeries, heritage sites, 247 mosques, three churches, and bulldozed 16 cemeteries. As put by professor Shireen Sayali, any honest observer of this war understands that the target of Israeli force and US supplied weapons is the Palestinian civilian.

Hamas is the collateral damage. The purpose of this campaign is the destruction of a the Palestinian people for the sake of achieving long term Israeli security, what I term, Negba peace. A violent oxymoron that predicates Jewish Israeli safety on the elimination of Palestinians. In pursuit of its territorial ambitions to achieve unchecked Zionist settler sovereignty, Israel has removed Palestinians for seventy seven years and counting. It has imposed a permanent military occupation on the West Bank in Gaza for fifty eight years and counting, and it has besieged 2,300,000 Palestinians who are now possibly only 2,000,000 because of this past nineteen months, besiege them for seventeen years and counting.

What we have been witnessing for the past five hundred eighty five days is the cruelest and most violent episode of the ongoing NECPA. This did not start on October 7, nor was it a response to October 7 that provided a useful cover in order to accelerate this massive removal. On 10/12/2023, agricultural minister Abi Duchter told us plainly this is Nakba twenty twenty three, a campaign that is evidenced across Palestinian geographies, including in the Northern West Bank where some 40,000 Palestinians have been removed just this year. The Trump administration has adopted this goal in its current build bid to build a Gaza Riviera to remove Palestinians to the Sudan, Somalia, or Syria. And most recently, on 05/04/2025, the Israeli cabinet unanimously voted to reoccupy all of Gaza and ethnically cleanse its remaining inhabitants.

This is why the return of more than 300,000 Palestinians to their homes in North Gaza in early twenty twenty five was so incredible. It was the first time in nearly eight decades of ongoing Nakba that we witnessed the return of Palestinians in mass, a return that embodies the national aspirations of the Palestinian people. As chronicled by Ahmed Abortima who marched home, on that day, I walked as I had never walked before. About 15 kilometers nonstop, I entered Gaza City, a dream long cherished during the days of war now realized. Despite unprecedented cruelty, Palestinians refused to surrender and marched home by foot.

This is precisely why Palestinians are racialized as a cure security threat because they, we, refuse to disappear. The Nakba is ongoing, and so is Palestinian resistance to our elimination. There is sufficient law to end the genocide, to lift the blockade, to end the occupation, and to realize Palestinian self determination. Had international law ever been enough, however, Palestinian refugees would be growing their families and their gardens on their original lands rather than searching for the remains of flesh of their babies beneath the rubble. Remarkably, the time of genocide has also been a moment of significant judicial strides furthering Palestinian liberation.

In January 2024, the International Court of Justice determined that Israel’s campaign was plausible genocide. In May 2024, it issued an other provisional measure ordering the withdrawal from Rafah. That same month, the International Criminal Court finally issued arrest warrants for Benjamin Netanyahu and Yoav Galant. In July 2024, the ICJ issued an advisory opinion determining that Israel’s presence in the West Bank and Gaza is unlawful, ordering it to withdraw its settlers and military from the territory and to provide reparations for the Palestinian people. Last month, the ICJ heard an argument on the legality of banning UNRWA, the UN refugee agency responsible for humanitarian relief and now banned amid a starvation campaign that has killed 57 children in two months.

This is not a legal controversy. It is a political one. The United States, among other states, has wrung its hands behind judicial rulings, but this is selective deference to the court. In its last days of office, the Biden administration recognized there’s a genocide of the Masalid ethnic tribe in Darfur by the rapid support forces. When asked whether they can use the same standards to make that decision to adjudicate Israel’s campaign in Gaza, The US Ambassador At Large For Global Criminal Justice said, quote, it will ultimately be for the ICJ judges to decide with zero irony that they did not have to submit their evidence on The Sudan before the ICJ.

This is not a legal controversy. This is a political one. The selective deference to the ICJ on the question of genocide of Palestinians is an attempt to deflect responsibility, and the ongoing counterrevolution against activists globally is an attempt to revise a history of the present. Since 2020, an emerging consensus among less legacy human rights organizations and the world court have defined Israel as an apartheid regime. Rather than boycott, divest from, and sanction apartheid Israel, the global community has attempted to normalize it.

Five years later, we see the danger of allowing that exception. Apartheid and genocide are on the same continuum. The three of the specific acts conducted to maintain apartheid are identical to the acts committed to commit genocide. In the former, for apartheid, they are done for the purpose of dominate of domination. In the latter, they are done with the intent to destroy.

Genocide is the logical outcome of any project to conquer and settle the land upon which other people live unless it is checked. Many of you here, many of you have either survived colonialism or are the ancestors of those who have survived colonialism, and you are painfully aware of its legacies. That’s why in 1974, this body firmly resolved that Palestinians are a juridical people. Palestinians exist and deserve to exist by relegating Palestine to a bilateral bilateral political issue beyond the reach of international norms, you have steadily normalized occupation. By failing to apply sanctions and engage in boycott, many of you have normalized apartheid.

And now, by failing to act, you are at risk of normalizing genocide. But if you normalize genocide, you will have nothing left. If it is permissible to deny a people exist, to cage them, to subject them to systematic warfare, then to use AI technology to bomb them at unprecedented rates in their homes, to burn them alive in tents, to experiment on them with suicide drones, to deny them medical care, to allow premature babies to rot in NICU units, and mamas be denied anesthetic to have c sections, to starve them while their food decays in miles of eight trucks, all without consequence, and worse, while insisting that their lives are secondary, if not altogether insignificant relative to Zionist settler sovereignty, then I promise you that no one is safe. As put by Colombian president Gustavo Pietro, Gaza is a rehearsal for the rest of the world. Israeli finance minister, Basilil Smotrich, recently said that the victory in the war would mean the full destruction of Gaza and the displacement of its residents.

He has also boasted that Israelis, quote, are finally going to conquer the Gaza Strip. We are no longer afraid of the word occupation. Smotrich’s audacity is our failure. You must make it impossible for Smotrich and anyone else to boast of conquest through genocide in the twenty first century. Make those who speak it have to say it in hushed whispers, enclosed rooms rather than boast about that conquest.

But let us speak honestly. Most of you fear US retribution. The genocide in Gaza is one of the major atrocities of our time, and most people in the world are against it. Our inability to stop it reflects an inten international system where the equality of nation states remains an aspirational principle. It might be good for us to remember, The United States is an empire, but The United States is not the world.

In this precise moment, US Lawmakers welcomed the international war criminal Benjamin Netanyahu into the White House. US lawmakers and universities welcome minister of national security, Itamar Ben Gur, who was disqualified for military service because of his affiliation with the Cahan Movement declared a terrorist organization by The US and Israel. Can you imagine being so extreme that you cannot serve in the Israeli army? The same army that sprays five and a half year old girls with 335 bullets and executes 15 paramedics and buries them along with their ambulances in a mass grave? The Israeli army wouldn’t have Ben Gurir, but US Lawmakers and several US universities embraced him just as they colluded to kidnap, disappear, and deport students.

Do not look west for moral or political leadership. The United States has long absconded on that position. Do not let The United States and Israel upend the global system. In its defense of Israel, The United States threatens the entire legal structure established since since the second World War. In just nineteen months, the US has vetoed five ceasefire resolutions to end this genocide despite the extraordinary invocation of article 99 by the UN secretary general and two invocations of uniting for peace resolutions.

Both the Biden and Trump administration have denigrated the ICJ. US national sec security spokesman John Kirby described the ICJ case on genocide con on the genocide convention as, quote, meritless, counterproductive, and completely without any basis, in fact, whatsoever. Our world court is being denigrated. The primary judicial organ of this body is being denigrated by those who claim global leadership. The US is not even a signatory to the Rome Statute, which established the International Criminal Court, but the Trump administration has passed an executive order to place sanctions on the prosecutor and anyone who cooperates with the court.

In October 2024, a hundred and seven members of congress threatened to cease financial support to the uni UN if it unseated Israel, literally threatening its budget for doing your job. What is the purpose of the UN if it cannot stop a genocide and prevent the calculated starvation of 2,000,000 people? The international community has failed many times before and at great cost. One of the most significant times was in 1936 when the League of Nations allowed Mussolini’s fascist Italy to invade Ethiopia, an independent member state of the league. Then the league imposed cosmetic sanctions rather than an oil embargo to stop the war.

It tolerated Israel’s Italy’s use, excuse me, of chemical weapons and described Ethiopia’s People’s War as human shielding. The consequence of racist imperialism was ultimately the dissolution of the League of Nations. The UN was born of this failure. It was born of the commitment to not let atrocities of genocide from Namibia to the Armenian genocide to the holocaust happen again. It is that commitment that is at stake today.

If you do not stand up and speak out, this very system will be a casualty of The US Israel genocidal war on Palestine and the Palestinian people. Today, we do not need the United Nations to be a powerful symbol of international cooperation. We need your collective action to simply be powerful. In this moment, we have many choices. We can acknowledge Israel’s campaign as genocide and impose an arms embargo, block the ports, sever diplomatic ties, sever all civilian and military trade, impose cultural and academic boycotts, and unseat Israel for its obstinate transgressions.

If genocide is too much, you can confront this atrocity as a war, specifically, a colonial war against a racist regime and alien occupation regulated with the additional protocols and customary laws of war that recognize the captives as POWs, ensure them humane treatment, recognize Palestinian militants as combatants, permit third party intervention. We can use the law to protect hospitals and schools and shelters, to protect the journalists and doctors and aid workers, to forcibly open the humanitarian corridors and abide by the ICC arrest warrants to arrest Netanyahu and Gallant upon arrival. If war is too much, you can confront this atrocity as a humanitarian tragedy, and you can send in a peacekeeping mission to protect Palestinians who have been denied the right to self defense for nearly eight decades. And if humanitarian tragedy is too much, you can find a way to have mercy on the Palestinian children, the ones who have been pulled from the rubble with two limbs and no family and find themselves in a cage without food or water. Do not sit in the seat of power and do nothing.

The United States is an empire, but The United States is not the world. You are the world. Each and every one of you has the capacity to halt the charade, to fulfill the minimal mandate of protecting a people’s right to exist. Individually, you are each someone’s ancestor and you will be an ancestor to someone. Our time on this earth is ephemeral and I implore you to give it meaning.

As the Palestinian poet Mahmoud Darwish reminds us, we are not the most chosen people in the world, but no one is more chosen than us. You cannot abandon Palestine without betraying your legacy, your progeny, and yourself. May we transform this world into a place worthy of our children. May you be protected. May you be strong.

May we be victorious. Free Palestine, and may Palestine free us all. Thank you.

Jadaliyya Co-Editor Noura Erakat Addresses the UN in Commemoration of the 77th Anniversary of the Nakba, May 2025.

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At the center of Sachs’ analysis is the deepening instability in the Middle East, which he attributes largely to the United States’ unconditional support for Israel’s hardline policies. According to him, the recent escalation in Gaza, potential military confrontations with Iran, and wider regional tensions in places like Yemen, Lebanon, and Syria, stem from what he calls “the full control of the extremist Israeli government over US foreign policy in the Middle East.”

He characterizes the Biden and Trump administrations alike as having ceded American sovereignty in regional matters, accusing both of enabling what he calls Israel’s “murderous attacks” and broader ambitions of territorial domination. In his words, Netanyahu has long harbored “a plan for regime change through war with Iran,” and this agenda has effectively hijacked American strategy. The abandonment of the Iran nuclear deal (JCPOA) under Trump, and the Biden administration’s unwillingness to reengage meaningfully, are in Sachs’ view emblematic of a broader pattern: diplomacy is being replaced by militarism.

He bluntly asserts that the Trump administration “killed” the JCPOA “under the guidance of Netanyahu,” despite Iran’s consistent interest in diplomacy. The consequences, Sachs warns, are profound. “The only path to peace,” he says, “is a two-state solution. The only other way is ongoing slaughter.” Instead, what he sees is an Israeli strategy of “ethnic cleansing” of Palestinians and a regional policy of domination backed by U.S. arms and funding.

This militarized approach, Sachs argues, is not just morally reprehensible, but strategically disastrous. He sees the current trajectory potentially leading to a full-scale war with Iran, a country with a powerful military and a long civilizational history, deeply allied with Russia. “If there were a war with Iran,” he warns, “it would be horrible, tragic, dangerous, and the potential tinder for World War III.”

Sachs’ criticisms are not limited to the Middle East. He sees a similar lack of strategic coherence in the U.S. approach to global power competition, particularly with China and Russia. Trump’s economic nationalism, expressed through sweeping tariffs and threats of decoupling, is, in his words, “economic ignorance.” Far from strengthening the U.S. position, these moves are “uniting the world against the United States.”

He calls the notion that tariffs will fix trade imbalances or restore American industry “completely fallacious.” Instead, he predicts that such policies will “isolate the United States both economically and diplomatically,” weakening its global role and encouraging other nations to build alternative trading systems.

In Sachs’ view, the Trump administration doesn’t operate according to any coherent grand strategy. Instead, he describes it as “improvisation” laced with bluster and guided largely by domestic politics and lobby interests—especially those aligned with Israel. He sees Trump’s posture toward Russia as transactional rather than strategic, guided by a crude division of influence and resources rather than a broader geopolitical framework.

Europe, meanwhile, doesn’t escape Sachs’ scrutiny. He portrays the continent as confused, fractured, and increasingly irrelevant. “Europe basically doesn’t have any foreign policy right now,” he says, lamenting the absence of coherent leadership on major crises such as Ukraine or the Middle East.

While Britain and France, he notes, have taken the most aggressive stance in supporting Ukraine militarily, Sachs finds their actions puzzling and counterproductive. He suggests that Ukraine, under martial law and led by a government increasingly unaccountable to its people, is being pushed into self-destructive behavior by its European allies. “It’s suicidal, what Ukraine is doing,” he says, arguing that serious negotiations are the only viable path forward.

The sabotage of diplomacy in Europe is especially frustrating to Sachs. He criticizes leaders like Macron and Starmer for failing to explore diplomatic solutions or initiate serious talks with Russia. “Not a moment of diplomacy,” he says, calling this absence “unforgivable.”

His critique extends to the broader political culture in Europe. According to Sachs, elections are being undermined or outright canceled, while popular anti-establishment figures are being removed from the political field. “No politician in Europe seems to act in the interest of his or her country,” he says, painting a picture of deep political decay.

Sachs saves some of his harshest words for the broader implications of current U.S. leadership on the world stage. He accuses Trump of arrogance and belligerence, not just toward adversaries, but toward allies like Canada and Mexico. “Trump is full of bluster from morning till night and full of hostility,” Sachs says, claiming that his conduct is driving away international partners.

While he acknowledges Trump’s occasional rhetorical gestures toward avoiding war with Russia, he is skeptical of the underlying motivations, seeing them as less about peace and more about carving up spheres of influence. In contrast, Iran, he argues, is viewed by Trump officials almost entirely through the lens of Israeli politics—as a target rather than a sovereign actor.

The overall picture Sachs paints is one of declining American influence, increasingly erratic Western leadership, and a world slipping toward conflict through a combination of arrogance, inertia, and ideological capture. For all the chaos he outlines, the central message is clear: without serious diplomacy, recognition of mutual interests, and respect for international law, the current trajectory could lead to unprecedented global instability.

“If anyone stands up to it,” he says, referring to current power dynamics, “the Netanyahu doctrine is kill them, overthrow them.” That doctrine, he argues, has spread beyond Israel—and unless checked, it threatens to engulf not just the Middle East, but the global order itself.

• Watch the interview here.

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Syrian Arab Army Operations in Aleppo

As reported, Syrian forces, including elite units such as the Fourth Division and special forces, are intensifying their operations against terrorist groups in western and southern Aleppo. These groups, described as Turkish proxies and U.S.-backed factions aligned with Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS, formerly Jabhat al-Nusra), represent the remnants of a larger terrorist insurgency that once posed a significant threat to the Syrian state. The use of artillery fire, supported by Russian airstrikes targeting supply and escape routes, indicates a coordinated effort to neutralise these groups and consolidate control in strategic areas.

This offensive aligns with broader Syrian and Russian objectives to weaken opposition forces and deny them the ability to regroup or receive external support. By targeting logistical networks, the SAA and its allies aim to dismantle the operational capabilities of these groups, preventing them from prolonging the conflict or launching counteroffensives.

Geopolitical Context: The Wider Regional Implications

The military developments in Aleppo cannot be examined in isolation. They are part of a larger regional struggle involving multiple state and non-state actors. Reports suggest that these actions are linked to the aftermath of the recent Israeli-Lebanon ceasefire, which temporarily halted hostilities between Israel and Hezbollah. However, this ceasefire appears to have shifted focus to Syria, a critical hub for the “Resistance Axis” comprising Iran, Syria, Hezbollah, and allied groups.

Syria’s strategic importance lies in its role as a conduit for weapons and supplies from Iran to Hezbollah in Lebanon. This land corridor, often referred to as the “land bridge,” has been a persistent target for Israeli airstrikes. Israel’s strategy seeks to disrupt this supply chain, weakening Hezbollah’s capabilities and, by extension, the broader Resistance Axis. Current events underscore concerns that Israel, with U.S. support, will intensify efforts to target Syrian infrastructure, air defences, and military assets under the guise of countering threats to its security.

The Role of External Powers

The conflict in Syria has always been marked by the involvement of external powers, each pursuing its strategic interests and agendas.

1. Turkey: As a supporter of certain terrorist groups, Turkey has been a key player in the Syrian conflict. The reference to Turkish proxies suggests ongoing Turkish involvement in northern Syria, where Ankara aims to counter Kurdish forces and maintain influence over border regions. Reports of coordination with Israeli intelligence further complicate Turkey’s role, indicating potential alignments that transcend traditional alliances.
2. Russia: Russia’s military and diplomatic support for the Syrian government has been pivotal in shifting the balance of power in favor of Damascus. Russian counter-terrorism operations and training programs for Syrian forces reflects Moscow’s commitment to ensuring the resilience of its ally. These efforts also serve Russia’s broader strategic interests, including maintaining a foothold in the eastern Mediterranean and countering U.S. influence in the region.
3. United States: The U.S. supports terrorist groups and facilitates the involvement of foreign mercenaries in both Syria and Ukraine. These claims reflect widespread perceptions among pro-Syrian government circles that the U.S. seeks to destabilise the region to advance its own agenda. The deployment of U.S. warplanes to Gulf state airbases and promises of increased military aid to Israel underscore Washington’s continued investment in regional security dynamics.
4. Ukraine: An intriguing aspect of recent reports is the allegation of Ukrainian involvement in Syria, providing training, drones, and support to terrorist groups. While the veracity of these claims is unclear, they highlight the interconnected nature of global conflicts and the perception of Ukraine as a proxy battleground in the broader Russia-West rivalry.

The Humanitarian Dimension

The ongoing conflict in Syria has had devastating humanitarian consequences. Current events raise concerns about the potential targeting of humanitarian supply lines that traverse the region, particularly those linking Iran, Iraq, and Syria to Lebanon. Any disruption to these routes would exacerbate the suffering of civilians, who already face challenges accessing essential goods and services due to the prolonged conflict and international sanctions.

Moreover, the intensification of hostilities risks further civilian casualties, especially if urban centres or densely populated areas become battlegrounds. Witnesses allude to the use of terrorist groups such as ISIS and Al-Qaeda to create diversionary fronts, a tactic that has previously resulted in significant human suffering.

The Resistance and the Future of the Region

The resilience of the Syrian Arab Army and its allies is on display. Syria is the “beating heart of the Resistance,” and ensuring its survival is crucial to the broader struggle against Western and Israeli aggression. Events underscore the ideological underpinnings of the conflict, which extend beyond territorial disputes to encompass questions of sovereignty, identity, and regional order.

The assertion that the current Syrian forces, bolstered by years of experience and Russian support, are far more capable than they were in 2011 reflects a broader narrative of defiance and determination. However, the challenges ahead remain formidable. The spectre of renewed violence, coupled with ongoing economic hardships, poses significant obstacles to Syria’s recovery and stability.

Troubled Days Ahead: A Call for Attention

The overarching message from the Syrian people is one of vigilance and solidarity with the Syrian government and its allies. While it reflects a specific perspective, it also highlights the complexities of the Syrian conflict and its implications for regional and global security. The interplay of military actions, political maneuvers, and humanitarian concerns underscores the need for a nuanced and comprehensive understanding of the situation.

As the world watches these developments, the question remains: Can Syria and its allies navigate the troubled waters ahead and emerge stronger, or will external pressures and internal challenges overwhelm their efforts? The answer will have profound implications not only for Syria but for the entire West Asia region.

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The Middle East, already a volatile region with a long history of conflict, stands at the precipice of a broader escalation, according to recent analysis by political commentator Alexander Mercouris. In a recent podcast, Mercouris outlined the increasing likelihood of a large-scale conflict between Israel and its regional adversaries, particularly Hezbollah and Iran. The tension has been brewing since the October 2022 attack by Hamas on Israel, triggering a military campaign that continues to escalate. Despite international calls for de-escalation, the region is witnessing a series of military strikes, assassinations, and retaliations that threaten to spiral into an uncontrollable conflict involving major global powers.

Mercouris argues that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is at the center of this escalation, pushing for an expanded conflict that would draw in Hezbollah and potentially Iran. Netanyahu’s actions, according to Mercouris, are designed to unify Israeli society and garner Western support, especially from the United States and European nations. While there have been efforts, particularly from Iran, to avoid an all-out war, the situation grows more dangerous each day as military operations intensify across the region.

Mercouris’ analysis points to several key moments in recent months that indicate a growing risk of regional war, including Israeli strikes on Iranian assets in Syria, retaliatory missile launches, and high-level diplomatic meetings between Iran and Russia. As both sides prepare for a broader confrontation, the world watches with apprehension, knowing that the stakes of this conflict could reshape the Middle East and draw in powerful global actors.

Section 2: Historical Context

To understand the current crisis, it’s essential to look back at the events leading up to this escalation. The Middle East has been a region of geopolitical tension for decades, but the situation took a dramatic turn in October 2022 when Hamas launched an attack on Israel. The attack led to a swift and aggressive military response from Israel, targeting Hamas strongholds in Gaza. This campaign, which continues to this day, has further destabilized the region and put Israel on a collision course with its long-time adversaries: Hezbollah and Iran.

For years, Hezbollah, a Shia Islamist political and militant group based in Lebanon, has been a major player in the region’s power dynamics, often seen as an extension of Iran’s influence in the Levant. Israel, under Netanyahu’s leadership, has consistently viewed Hezbollah and Iran as existential threats. This perception has only intensified as both sides engage in covert and overt military actions, often targeting each other’s assets in Syria, Lebanon, and beyond.

The broader geopolitical context also includes the influence of global powers like the United States and Russia. The U.S. has long been Israel’s staunchest ally, providing military aid and diplomatic backing. On the other hand, Russia has cultivated strong ties with Iran and Syria, positioning itself as a key player in Middle Eastern geopolitics. As Mercouris notes, recent visits between Russian and Iranian officials indicate a growing partnership that could have significant implications for the region’s stability.

Section 3: Key Players in the Conflict

Several key actors are involved in the escalating tensions, each with their own agendas and interests:

• Israel: Under Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, Israel has pursued an aggressive military strategy, particularly against Iranian influence in Syria and Hezbollah in Lebanon. Netanyahu’s government appears intent on broadening the conflict, a move that Mercouris believes is designed to rally domestic support and secure Western backing for a potential larger confrontation with Iran.
• Hezbollah: Backed by Iran, Hezbollah has long been a thorn in Israel’s side, particularly with its entrenched presence in southern Lebanon. Though Hezbollah’s military strength is formidable, the group has so far avoided engaging in a full-scale war with Israel. However, recent Israeli strikes on Hezbollah targets and the assassination of key figures have heightened tensions, making further conflict seem inevitable.
• Iran: As the region’s Shia powerhouse, Iran has been deeply involved in supporting both Hezbollah and various militias across the Middle East. Despite Israeli provocations, Mercouris notes that Iran has so far been restrained, likely to avoid a broader conflict with Israel and the West. Yet, Iran’s growing military ties with Russia, as evidenced by the alleged provision of ballistic missiles to support Russia’s war in Ukraine, could embolden Tehran to take a more aggressive stance.
• The United States: The U.S. has been closely monitoring the situation, deploying Navy carrier groups to the region in an effort to deter Iran from retaliating against Israeli strikes. While Washington has issued warnings to Iran, Mercouris suggests that the U.S. is more concerned with China’s growing influence in the Pacific, which could limit its ability to intervene in the Middle East if a full-scale war erupts.
• Russia: Russia’s involvement in the Middle East has increased significantly over the last decade, particularly with its military support for the Assad regime in Syria. Mercouris highlights recent meetings between Russian and Iranian officials as a sign of deepening cooperation, particularly in military technology and defense. Russia’s strategic interest in the region, coupled with its support for Iran, complicates the geopolitical landscape further.

Great! I’ll continue drafting the next sections of the article, focusing on the recent developments, military tensions, and international reactions. Here’s the next part of the article:

Section 4: Recent Developments in the Middle East

Over the past several months, the situation in the Middle East has rapidly deteriorated, with a series of military strikes, retaliations, and assassinations that signal a broader conflict is on the horizon. One of the most notable events that escalated tensions was the Israeli military strike on an Iranian embassy building in Damascus. This act provoked a measured response from Iran in the form of a missile strike on Israel, an attack which was reportedly discussed in advance with American officials to avoid an uncontrollable escalation. Despite this, both Israel and Iran have downplayed the significance of the incident, largely due to U.S. diplomatic pressure to avoid a larger conflict at that moment.

In addition to this, there have been several other critical developments. In a particularly shocking move, the Israeli government was widely believed to be behind the assassination of Ismail Haniyeh, the political head of Hamas, in Tehran. This assassination occurred on the same day as the inauguration of Iran’s new president, Seyyed Ibrahim Raisi, sending a clear signal to Iran and its regional allies about Israel’s willingness to target high-profile figures. The killing of Haniyeh sparked outrage in Tehran, where Iranian leaders openly discussed retaliatory measures, further increasing the risk of a broader military conflict.

Simultaneously, Israeli forces have also been targeting Hezbollah commanders in Lebanon. The assassination of Fuad Shukr, a senior Hezbollah military figure in Beirut, added another layer of complexity to the escalating situation. Shukr, who was closely aligned with Hezbollah’s leader Hassan Nasrallah, was a key figure in the organization, and his death has intensified animosity between Hezbollah and Israel. This event triggered a series of missile strikes from Hezbollah into northern Israel, which Israel responded to with a massive bombing campaign, deploying 100 aircraft to target Hezbollah positions in southern Lebanon.

Adding to this volatile mix, reports of Iranian ballistic missile shipments to Russia in support of its war in Ukraine have further complicated the geopolitical situation. Mercouris notes that while Iran officially denied these claims, the shipment suggests deeper military cooperation between Tehran and Moscow, which could alter the balance of power in the region. In return, Russia has reportedly provided Iran with advanced air defense systems and electronic warfare technology, potentially preparing Iran for a future conflict with Israel or Western powers.

Section 5: Military Tensions: A Steady March Toward War

The military situation in the Middle East is characterized by an escalating series of tit-for-tat strikes that risk spiraling into a full-scale war. Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu’s government has been at the forefront of this escalation, with multiple military operations targeting Hezbollah, Iran, and their respective allies. Netanyahu’s objective, according to Mercouris, is clear: to expand the conflict and potentially force a larger confrontation with Hezbollah and Iran.

One of the most significant incidents in recent weeks was Israel’s use of explosive devices disguised as ordinary objects, such as walkie-talkies and electronic pages, to target Hezbollah fighters. This tactic, while innovative, has raised significant ethical and legal concerns due to the indiscriminate nature of the attacks. While these devices were designed to target Hezbollah militants, they also ended up harming civilians, including children, who unknowingly handled the explosive devices. Mercouris points out that this attack, which resulted in the deaths of at least 20 people and injured dozens more, was seen as a misstep by Israeli intelligence. The explosive devices were detonated prematurely, which allowed Hezbollah to quickly dispose of any remaining compromised communication equipment before a major offensive could be launched.

In response, Hezbollah has ramped up its missile strikes on Israel, targeting military installations and civilian areas alike. One of the most significant strikes involved a missile hitting an Israeli intelligence center near Tel Aviv. While Israel claimed the strike only hit a chicken farm, there have been rumors that the damage was far more significant, potentially impacting critical military infrastructure. This ongoing shadow war between Israel and Hezbollah is now seen as a precursor to a broader conflict, particularly as Israeli forces continue to mass along the Lebanese border, reportedly preparing for a large-scale ground invasion of southern Lebanon.

Mercouris suggests that Israel’s military operations are designed to provoke Hezbollah and Iran into retaliatory strikes that would justify a broader Israeli military campaign. However, both Hezbollah and Iran have been cautious in their responses, possibly due to internal divisions. Recent reports have surfaced of a tense meeting between Iranian officials and various Shia militias in the region, including Hezbollah and the Houthis. The meeting, marked by heated arguments, revealed frustrations within the militias over Iran’s reluctance to launch large-scale retaliatory strikes against Israel. Some militia leaders accused Tehran of betrayal, while Iranian officials insisted that a larger war would only serve Israel’s interests by uniting Western powers against Iran.

Despite these internal tensions, Hezbollah remains a formidable military force, and any direct conflict between Israel and Hezbollah would likely lead to significant casualties on both sides. Moreover, with Iran’s growing military cooperation with Russia, it is increasingly clear that any conflict in the region will not be limited to local actors but will draw in larger global powers, further complicating the situation.

Section 6: International Reactions and Diplomatic Maneuvers

The international community is watching the Middle East with increasing concern as the risk of a broader war grows. The United States, traditionally Israel’s most steadfast ally, has responded to the escalating tensions by deploying two Navy carrier groups to the Gulf of Oman, signaling a readiness to intervene if necessary. However, Mercouris suggests that Washington’s attention is divided, particularly with rising tensions in the Pacific and the U.S.’s strategic focus on China. As a result, the U.S. may be hesitant to commit fully to a Middle Eastern conflict, especially one that could embroil it in a protracted war with Iran and its allies.

At the same time, the Biden administration has been working behind the scenes to prevent the conflict from spiraling further. American diplomats have reportedly been in close communication with both Israeli and Iranian officials, urging restraint. In particular, the U.S. has pressured Israel to downplay the significance of its missile strikes on Iran to avoid pushing Tehran into a corner where retaliation becomes inevitable.

Europe, too, has been involved in diplomatic efforts to de-escalate the situation. France and the United Kingdom, both key NATO members, have expressed concern over the rising tensions and have urged both Israel and Iran to exercise caution. However, Israeli Foreign Minister Eli Cohen recently met with European officials and claimed that the U.K. and France were prepared to back a joint military operation against Iran if Iran were to launch an attack on Israel. While this claim was later walked back by the Israeli foreign ministry, it indicates the extent to which Israel is seeking Western support for its military actions.

Russia’s role in the region has also been significant. In recent months, high-level meetings between Russian and Iranian officials have underscored the growing military and political alliance between the two nations. Russia, which has long supported the Assad regime in Syria, has been providing Iran with advanced air defense systems and military technology. This cooperation has been further strengthened by the ongoing war in Ukraine, with Iran reportedly supplying Russia with ballistic missiles in exchange for military support. As Mercouris points out, this alliance could dramatically shift the balance of power in the region, making any future conflict even more dangerous.

Despite these diplomatic efforts, the possibility of an all-out war remains high. Netanyahu’s government appears determined to push forward with military operations, and Hezbollah and Iran, while cautious for now, are likely to retaliate if Israel continues its aggressive actions. As international powers navigate this complex situation, the risk of a regional war drawing in global actors seems more real than ever.

Section 7: Impact on Civilian Populations

As tensions between Israel and its regional adversaries rise, the toll on civilian populations is growing at an alarming rate. The ongoing military campaigns in Gaza, southern Lebanon, and parts of Israel have had devastating humanitarian consequences, with thousands of civilians caught in the crossfire. The conflict, which has escalated significantly since Hamas’ attack on Israel in October 2022, has resulted in widespread destruction, loss of life, and displacement across the region.

In Gaza, where Israel has been conducting its military campaign against Hamas, the humanitarian situation is dire. According to multiple reports, including Mercouris’ analysis, Gaza has been subjected to continuous airstrikes, artillery bombardments, and ground operations. The densely populated area, which has long been blockaded by Israel, has seen its already fragile infrastructure decimated by the ongoing conflict. Hospitals are overwhelmed with casualties, many of whom are civilians, and basic necessities such as water, electricity, and food are in short supply. The United Nations and various humanitarian organizations have called for a ceasefire to allow for the delivery of essential aid, but thus far, those efforts have been largely unsuccessful.

The civilian death toll in Gaza has been staggering. Humanitarian groups estimate that thousands of civilians, including a significant number of women and children, have been killed since the conflict began. The Israeli government maintains that its military operations are targeted at Hamas militants, but critics argue that the indiscriminate nature of airstrikes in densely populated areas has led to significant collateral damage. As Mercouris points out, this has also caused international outcry and increased scrutiny of Israel’s military tactics, with some accusing Israel of committing war crimes.

In Lebanon, the situation is similarly grim. Hezbollah, which is deeply embedded in civilian areas of southern Lebanon, has been targeted by Israeli airstrikes and missile attacks. These strikes, while aimed at Hezbollah military positions, have also resulted in significant civilian casualties. Southern Lebanon, a region that has seen repeated conflicts between Hezbollah and Israel over the years, is once again on the front lines, and civilians in towns and villages near the Israeli border are bearing the brunt of the violence. In recent weeks, hundreds of civilians have been displaced as a result of Israeli bombing campaigns, and many more live in fear of further escalation.

Within Israel, civilians have also been affected by the conflict, particularly in areas near the northern border with Lebanon and southern regions close to Gaza. Hezbollah missile strikes have targeted towns and cities in northern Israel, causing casualties and damage to infrastructure. While Israel’s advanced missile defense system, the Iron Dome, has intercepted many of these attacks, some have gotten through, causing significant harm to civilians. The psychological toll of living under the constant threat of missile strikes has also been severe, with many Israelis experiencing anxiety, trauma, and displacement as they seek refuge from the fighting.

The use of unconventional tactics, such as the explosive devices hidden in everyday objects by Israeli forces, has also raised concerns about the impact on civilians. As discussed by Mercouris, these devices—disguised as items like walkie-talkies and pages—were intended to target Hezbollah fighters, but in practice, they have been responsible for civilian deaths. In one particularly tragic incident, a child was killed after unknowingly handling one of these booby-trapped devices. This has further fueled anger and resentment against Israel in the region and has prompted widespread condemnation from humanitarian organizations and parts of the international community.

The humanitarian crisis is compounded by the economic devastation caused by the conflict. Gaza’s economy, already on life support before the current round of fighting, has been brought to the brink of collapse. Key industries, including agriculture and manufacturing, have been severely disrupted, and the blockade imposed by Israel has made it nearly impossible for goods to enter or exit the territory. Unemployment and poverty rates are skyrocketing, and many families are struggling to survive. In Lebanon, the economy is also in freefall, exacerbated by the influx of refugees and the destruction caused by Israeli airstrikes.

The international community, while issuing calls for peace, has struggled to provide meaningful relief to those affected by the conflict. Humanitarian aid convoys face significant challenges in reaching those in need, particularly in Gaza, where Israeli security concerns often lead to delays or outright blockades of aid shipments. As the conflict drags on, the civilian populations in Gaza, Lebanon, and Israel face a grim future, with little hope for immediate relief.

Section 8: Political Implications and Regional Dynamics

The political ramifications of the escalating conflict in the Middle East are profound and far-reaching. At the heart of this geopolitical quagmire is Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, whose actions have sparked significant debate both domestically and internationally. Netanyahu, long known for his hawkish stance on national security, has made it clear that he believes a broader war in the Middle East is not only inevitable but necessary for Israel’s long-term security. According to Mercouris, Netanyahu’s approach appears to be driven by two key objectives: uniting Israeli society behind a common enemy and securing the backing of Western powers, particularly the United States and Europe.

Domestically, Netanyahu’s policies have polarized Israeli society. While a significant portion of the Israeli population supports his hardline stance, particularly in the wake of the Hamas attack, there is also a growing opposition to his approach. As Mercouris points out, opinion polls show that while 45% of Israelis favor an all-out war to resolve the country’s security challenges, this is not a majority. Netanyahu’s government faces criticism from various quarters, including political rivals, civil society groups, and international human rights organizations. The ongoing military campaign in Gaza, in particular, has been condemned for its high civilian death toll, and there are increasing calls for Netanyahu to pursue diplomatic solutions rather than military escalation.

The broader regional political implications are equally significant. Israel’s ongoing military operations have strained its relations with several key players in the Middle East. In recent years, Israel has made diplomatic inroads with several Arab nations, including the United Arab Emirates and Bahrain, as part of the Abraham Accords. However, the escalating conflict with Hamas, Hezbollah, and Iran threatens to undo much of this progress. Countries that had previously normalized relations with Israel are now under pressure from their populations and political factions to distance themselves from Israeli actions, particularly in light of the humanitarian crisis in Gaza.

Iran, for its part, has been walking a fine line between retaliation and restraint. While it is a staunch supporter of both Hezbollah and Hamas, Iran has so far refrained from engaging in direct military action against Israel. This restraint, Mercouris suggests, is partly due to Tehran’s desire to avoid a broader war that could invite Western intervention. However, Iran’s growing military cooperation with Russia, particularly in the context of the Ukraine conflict, suggests that Tehran is preparing for the possibility of a larger confrontation. The question remains whether Iran will continue to exercise restraint or if it will be drawn into a larger conflict as tensions with Israel escalate.

Meanwhile, other regional powers are watching the situation closely. Saudi Arabia, a key Sunni power and rival to Iran, has traditionally maintained a cautious stance toward Israel. However, the kingdom’s position could shift depending on how the conflict unfolds. Riyadh’s focus has been on countering Iranian influence in the region, and any direct conflict between Israel and Iran would have significant implications for Saudi Arabia’s security and foreign policy strategies.

Russia’s involvement in the Middle East has also deepened, particularly through its alliance with Iran and its continued military presence in Syria. Moscow’s support for the Assad regime has given it a foothold in the region, and its growing partnership with Tehran could shift the balance of power in the region. As Mercouris notes, Russia has provided Iran with advanced military technology, including air defense systems, and this cooperation is likely to continue as the conflict escalates.

Section 9: Potential Outcomes and Future Scenarios

The future of the Middle East hangs in the balance as the conflict between Israel and its adversaries shows no signs of de-escalating. Mercouris outlines several possible outcomes, each with its own set of risks and challenges.

1. A Broader Regional War: One of the most likely scenarios, according to Mercouris, is the eruption of a full-scale regional war involving Israel, Hezbollah, and Iran. Such a conflict could quickly draw in other regional players, such as Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, and Turkey, as well as global powers like the United States and Russia. In this scenario, the conflict would likely spread beyond Israel and Lebanon, engulfing Syria, Iraq, and potentially even Yemen, where Iranian-backed Houthis have already carried out missile strikes against Israel. The humanitarian consequences of such a war would be catastrophic, with millions of civilians at risk.

2. Diplomatic Intervention and Ceasefire: Another possibility is that international diplomacy could succeed in brokering a ceasefire before the conflict spirals further out of control. This would require significant pressure from global powers, particularly the United States and Europe, as well as regional actors like Saudi Arabia and Egypt. However, given the entrenched positions of both Israel and its adversaries, achieving a lasting ceasefire could prove difficult. Even if a ceasefire is reached, the underlying tensions between Israel and Hezbollah, Hamas, and Iran would remain unresolved, setting the stage for future conflicts.

3. Israeli Military Victory with Western Support: In this scenario, Israel could launch a decisive military campaign against Hezbollah and Iran, with the backing of Western powers. Such an operation would likely be aimed at dismantling Hezbollah’s military capabilities and significantly weakening Iran’s influence in the region. However, this scenario also comes with significant risks. A military victory for Israel could provoke further retaliation from Iran and its allies, potentially leading to a protracted and costly conflict.

4. Iran’s Strategic Restraint: A fourth scenario involves Iran continuing to exercise strategic restraint, avoiding direct military engagement with Israel despite provocations. In this case, Tehran would likely focus on

bolstering its regional alliances and strengthening its military capabilities in preparation for a future confrontation. This approach could delay an all-out war but would do little to resolve the underlying tensions in the region.

Section 10: Conclusion

As the Middle East stands on the brink of a potentially catastrophic war, the stakes have never been higher. The actions of key players like Israel, Hezbollah, Iran, and global powers such as the United States and Russia will determine the region’s future. Mercouris’ analysis paints a grim picture of an inevitable conflict, with Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu seemingly determined to provoke a broader war. At the same time, Hezbollah and Iran, while exercising caution for now, may eventually be drawn into the fight.

The humanitarian toll of this conflict is already immense, and a broader war would only exacerbate the suffering of civilians across the region. The international community must act swiftly to prevent further escalation, but the path to peace remains fraught with challenges. As both sides prepare for a larger confrontation, the world watches anxiously, knowing that the outcome of this conflict could reshape the Middle East for years to come.

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